The event, which was waiting for the whole financial world since the late summer of this year, has come to pass. U.S. Federal Reserve announced the inclusion of the printing press. Amount infusion controller is 600 billion dollars, which he intends to spend on buying Treasury bonds for eight months. This news caused a massive revaluation of assets around the world. Commodities and stocks went up sharply, by updating the months of highs and the dollar, by contrast, began to decline. However, the effect of measures announced was short, and on Monday, November 8 pair euro / dollar was trading at around 1.396.
In this situation goods such as basic economics very well reflect the real value of currencies - after the crisis, it is quite another. If there has been an extraordinary rise in gold prices, this is a bubble, but if he jumped in the price of all commodities, this is currency devaluation. It will lead to inflation, which is what the Fed is seeking. It does not matter what currency to evaluate products - in yen, dollars or euros, as almost all the monetary authorities and the developed and developing countries are involved in foreign wars.
Thus, the announcement of a new printing of money, Ben Bernanke actually said that the U.S. economy will emerge from the crisis at the expense of creditors of this country, including China and Russia, as holders of Treasury government bonds. From a macroeconomic point of view it is - a natural process: the States in taking on this risk by purchasing U.S. bonds. Ugly the situation looks only from a moral point of view, because GDP per capita in the U.S. is 47 thousand dollars, whereas in Russia - 14,7 thousand dollars, and China - only 5.94 $ thousand
European stock indexes closed down a slight decline
Stock trading in Europe on Monday, November 8, the leading index ended lower against the backdrop of heightened concerns of investors away from debt problems of the eurozone countries. After strong growth last week in the European trading floors there was a correction. Euro on Monday fell sharply against the dollar, which held the growth data from the U.S. labor market.
The appreciated dollar raised commodity prices in foreign currency in connection with which shares of the Swiss mining company Xstrata plc. fell 1.44%, and British papers Anglo American PLC - on 2,43%. The stock price of the largest German energy company E. On AG dropped to 1.15% after announcing that the company is negotiating with a group of investors to sell the second largest distribution network in the UK for 5.6 billion dollars
After a prolonged decline in stock price during the past week due to malfunctions of engines of two planes of Australian airline Qantas Rolls-Royce Group plc. said that the problems relate only to Trent 900 engines installed in aircraft A380. On the London Stock Exchange shares rose almost at once by 3%.
French media group Lagardere ScA lost 2.2% of the shares, despite sales growth of almost 3% over the past 9 months. In its quarterly report, the group noted that the growth of advertising revenues would decline in the IV quarter of this year That is what has been a catalyst downside Lagardere.
Following the auction on November 8, 2010. Britain's FTSE 100 index fell 25.39 points (-0.43%) - to 5849.96 points, the German DAX - on 3.70 points (-0.05%) - to 6750.50 points, the French CAC 40 - by 3.03 points (-0.08%) - to 3913.70 points, the Amsterdam AEX fell by 0.21 points (-0.06%) and totaled 346.69 points. The Swiss SMI rose by 12.64 points (0.19%) - to 6600.36 points. Pan-European index of "blue chips" FTSEurofirst 300 during trading fell by 0.04% to 1,110.85 points.
The appreciated dollar raised commodity prices in foreign currency in connection with which shares of the Swiss mining company Xstrata plc. fell 1.44%, and British papers Anglo American PLC - on 2,43%. The stock price of the largest German energy company E. On AG dropped to 1.15% after announcing that the company is negotiating with a group of investors to sell the second largest distribution network in the UK for 5.6 billion dollars
After a prolonged decline in stock price during the past week due to malfunctions of engines of two planes of Australian airline Qantas Rolls-Royce Group plc. said that the problems relate only to Trent 900 engines installed in aircraft A380. On the London Stock Exchange shares rose almost at once by 3%.
French media group Lagardere ScA lost 2.2% of the shares, despite sales growth of almost 3% over the past 9 months. In its quarterly report, the group noted that the growth of advertising revenues would decline in the IV quarter of this year That is what has been a catalyst downside Lagardere.
Following the auction on November 8, 2010. Britain's FTSE 100 index fell 25.39 points (-0.43%) - to 5849.96 points, the German DAX - on 3.70 points (-0.05%) - to 6750.50 points, the French CAC 40 - by 3.03 points (-0.08%) - to 3913.70 points, the Amsterdam AEX fell by 0.21 points (-0.06%) and totaled 346.69 points. The Swiss SMI rose by 12.64 points (0.19%) - to 6600.36 points. Pan-European index of "blue chips" FTSEurofirst 300 during trading fell by 0.04% to 1,110.85 points.
U.S. market: The week began with sales
On Monday, November 8, "bulls" of the American stock market have decided to make a break after a rally the previous session. Recall, a surge of purchases prompted the announcement of details of the program of quantitative easing and a good Friday the data from the U.S. labor market. Indices updated two-year high, did not disappoint even lag behind S & P. However, with these events was interrupted and a weakening dollar, and on Monday the U.S. currency against the euro was trading at the beginning of November. This factor, in addition to a simple desire to record profits, was decisive for the dynamics of the market on Monday. The euro pressured and problems in Europe: Ireland looking for ways to combat the budget deficit and deal with such unpopular measures as increasing taxes and reducing government spending, renewed talk about the debt problems of Spain and Portugal. Trades in the U.S. on November 8 began a gap down during the day "bulls managed to repulse the only part of the morning's losses.
Following the auction on November 8, the Dow Jones fell by 37.24 points (-0.33%) - to 11,406.84 points, NASDAQ rose by 1.07 points (0.04%) - to 2580.05 points, S & P dropped to 2.6 points (-0.21%) - to 1223.25 points.
Weaker than the market as a whole looked like the banking sector. During Friday's session, he led the growth of the market. And now, when there was more or less suitable occasion for sales, investors rush to cut long positions because they do not see a compelling reason to continue the rally in the sector. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. fell to 1,09%, Wells Fargo & Co. - On 0,62%, Citigroup Inc. - On 1,16%, U.S. Bancorp - on 1,53%, The Bank of New York Mellon Corp. - On 0,35%, PNC Financial Services Group Inc. - By 1,3%, Morgan Stanley - to 0,26%, JPMorgan Chase & Co. - On 1,05%.
Strengthening of the dollar triggered a fall in prices for industrial metals, so the steel sector on Nov. 8 and did not shine. Lowering the cost of finished the session paper Southern Copper Corp. (-0,3%), Arcelor Mittal (-0,01%), Nucor Corp. (-0,3%), United States Steel Corp. (-1.65%) And Alcoa Inc. (-0.28%). Recommendation on the shares of the latter with "buy" to "neutral" due to the lack of significant growth potential, on Monday reviewed by experts Davenport.
Monday started a two-day meeting on the case of an environmental disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. It is already known that an independent commission under the administration of U.S. president "agreed on 90%" with the findings of internal investigation, the British BP on the causes and circumstances of the oil spill. Fred Bartleet head of the commission said that the commission found no evidence to support the conventional version, according to which managers and employees of BP, responsible for decisions on the blown up drilling rig Deepwater, sacrificed security in favor of political interests. However, investors seem to be different expectations about the outcome of the meeting, since BP 8 November became cheaper - on 1,28%, and Halliburton Co. and Transocean Ltd., on which the British giant has shifted the blame, rose in price by 4.73% and 4.85% respectively. The worst partner BP's exploding platform - Deepwater Horizon Anadarko Petroleum Corp., Its market capitalization has fallen to 4.29%.
Following the auction on November 8, the Dow Jones fell by 37.24 points (-0.33%) - to 11,406.84 points, NASDAQ rose by 1.07 points (0.04%) - to 2580.05 points, S & P dropped to 2.6 points (-0.21%) - to 1223.25 points.
Weaker than the market as a whole looked like the banking sector. During Friday's session, he led the growth of the market. And now, when there was more or less suitable occasion for sales, investors rush to cut long positions because they do not see a compelling reason to continue the rally in the sector. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. fell to 1,09%, Wells Fargo & Co. - On 0,62%, Citigroup Inc. - On 1,16%, U.S. Bancorp - on 1,53%, The Bank of New York Mellon Corp. - On 0,35%, PNC Financial Services Group Inc. - By 1,3%, Morgan Stanley - to 0,26%, JPMorgan Chase & Co. - On 1,05%.
Strengthening of the dollar triggered a fall in prices for industrial metals, so the steel sector on Nov. 8 and did not shine. Lowering the cost of finished the session paper Southern Copper Corp. (-0,3%), Arcelor Mittal (-0,01%), Nucor Corp. (-0,3%), United States Steel Corp. (-1.65%) And Alcoa Inc. (-0.28%). Recommendation on the shares of the latter with "buy" to "neutral" due to the lack of significant growth potential, on Monday reviewed by experts Davenport.
Monday started a two-day meeting on the case of an environmental disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. It is already known that an independent commission under the administration of U.S. president "agreed on 90%" with the findings of internal investigation, the British BP on the causes and circumstances of the oil spill. Fred Bartleet head of the commission said that the commission found no evidence to support the conventional version, according to which managers and employees of BP, responsible for decisions on the blown up drilling rig Deepwater, sacrificed security in favor of political interests. However, investors seem to be different expectations about the outcome of the meeting, since BP 8 November became cheaper - on 1,28%, and Halliburton Co. and Transocean Ltd., on which the British giant has shifted the blame, rose in price by 4.73% and 4.85% respectively. The worst partner BP's exploding platform - Deepwater Horizon Anadarko Petroleum Corp., Its market capitalization has fallen to 4.29%.
Forex: Dollar may markedly backwards
For the current week have just two significant events for the U.S. economy, which will determine the mood of the markets in the coming months. Tuesday, November 2 elections to the U.S. Congress. Democrats managed to retain a majority in the Senate. However, a sustainable position of the Party Barack Obama hard. "I call the current situation in the U.S. economy of fiscal disaster. The budget deficit over the next decade will be a trillion dollars. It is clear that this quantity is impossibly high for the economy. At the same time we are in a political impasse: the Republicans veto any attempt to raise taxes, Democrats oppose any reduction in government spending. After the November elections, Republicans will increase their influence, and we get all incompetent government. All this is very bad for the economy and increases the probability of the second wave of recession. Now I appreciate his chances about 35-40%, "- said the chairman of Roubini Global Economics Nouriel Roubini.
Democratic victory stimulate the weakening U.S. currency. On Wednesday, 3 November, the euro is worth 1.403 U.S. dollars, but the strong motions until you'd expect. In front of no less important event for the American currency - the announcement of the results of U.S. Fed meeting, and it causes a lot of debate among economists, analysts and financiers.
"Remember, what is the mandate of the Federal Reserve System. It is to maintain full employment and price stability. We see clear signs of deflationary pressures in the U.S. economy and the inflation rate is clearly below the target range. And at the same time, we see the economy, working explicitly below its potential, and very high unemployment. In these circumstances it is easy to understand the position of the Federal Reserve: Using quantitative easing, the regulator is trying to kick-start the economy and deal with the problem of unemployment, which is also so much influence on the political situation before the elections, "- said Chairman of the Board Directors of Cerberus Capital Management, former U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow. These votes are already known - from the Fed again "free hand". Let's see what will be the Fed's generosity, cornered macroeconomic instability.
Democratic victory stimulate the weakening U.S. currency. On Wednesday, 3 November, the euro is worth 1.403 U.S. dollars, but the strong motions until you'd expect. In front of no less important event for the American currency - the announcement of the results of U.S. Fed meeting, and it causes a lot of debate among economists, analysts and financiers.
"Remember, what is the mandate of the Federal Reserve System. It is to maintain full employment and price stability. We see clear signs of deflationary pressures in the U.S. economy and the inflation rate is clearly below the target range. And at the same time, we see the economy, working explicitly below its potential, and very high unemployment. In these circumstances it is easy to understand the position of the Federal Reserve: Using quantitative easing, the regulator is trying to kick-start the economy and deal with the problem of unemployment, which is also so much influence on the political situation before the elections, "- said Chairman of the Board Directors of Cerberus Capital Management, former U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow. These votes are already known - from the Fed again "free hand". Let's see what will be the Fed's generosity, cornered macroeconomic instability.
U.S. crude stocks, from 23 to 29 October rose by 1.95 million barrels.
Commercial crude oil inventories in the U.S. for the week from 23 to 29 October 2010. increased by 1.95 million barrels. and amounted to 368.16 million barrels., the report said U.S. Department of Energy (US Department of Energy). Analysts polled by Reuters, predicted that oil reserves will grow by 1.2 million barrels.
According to the report of the department, as at 23 October 2010. reserves of crude oil and derivatives of energy characterized by the following weekly changes:
- Crude Oil: reserves grew by 1.95 million barrels. - Up to 368.16 million barrels. That the higher figure for the same date last year by 9,6%;
- Petrol: stocks fell by 2.7 million barrels. and amounted to 212.3 million barrels., which exceeds the same period in 2009. by 1,9%;
- Heavy distillates: stocks fell by 3.6 million barrels. - Up to 164.9 million barrels., Which is lower than for the same date last year by 1,5%.
Stocks Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the reporting week does not change and amounted to 726.6 million barrels. Own oil production in the U.S. for the week increased from 5.540 million to 5.593 million barrels per day, oil supply to refineries has decreased from 14.138 million to 13.905 million barrels per day. Net crude oil imports dropped from 9.463 million to 8.578 million barrels per day.
According to the report of the department, as at 23 October 2010. reserves of crude oil and derivatives of energy characterized by the following weekly changes:
- Crude Oil: reserves grew by 1.95 million barrels. - Up to 368.16 million barrels. That the higher figure for the same date last year by 9,6%;
- Petrol: stocks fell by 2.7 million barrels. and amounted to 212.3 million barrels., which exceeds the same period in 2009. by 1,9%;
- Heavy distillates: stocks fell by 3.6 million barrels. - Up to 164.9 million barrels., Which is lower than for the same date last year by 1,5%.
Stocks Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the reporting week does not change and amounted to 726.6 million barrels. Own oil production in the U.S. for the week increased from 5.540 million to 5.593 million barrels per day, oil supply to refineries has decreased from 14.138 million to 13.905 million barrels per day. Net crude oil imports dropped from 9.463 million to 8.578 million barrels per day.
The index of business activity in the U.S. in October rose by 1.1 points
The index of business activity in the U.S. services in October 2010. increased compared with the previous month to 1.1 points and made 54.3 points, said in a Nov. 3 report of the American Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Analysts had forecast that the index for October 2010. of 54 points.
In September of 2010. the index was 53.2 points.
The value of this index is above 50 points is an indicator of growth in the services sector, the value is below 50 points indicates a slowdown in the sector.
In September of 2010. the index was 53.2 points.
The value of this index is above 50 points is an indicator of growth in the services sector, the value is below 50 points indicates a slowdown in the sector.
Trading in Europe closed down the leading index
Stock trading in Europe on Wednesday, November 3, 2010., The leading index ended lower on news from the U.S.. The leading role played by the mood of investors, who feared that the U.S. Federal Reserve is not enough help the U.S. economy. The market expected the Fed will announce additional financial injections into the American economy.
By 9,5% cheaper stocks Cobham Plc., Manufacturer of telecommunications equipment. Investors are not happy about the message that the company expects lower earnings this year because of ongoing transfers of contracts with the U.S. and the general instability in the market.
The situation is similar around the quotations of Norwegian oil company Statoil ASA. They fell 5.4% after the company reported a decline forecast by production volume in 2010.
In the "minus" ended trading day and the second largest in the UK retail chain selling clothing Next Plc. The financial report of the company showed that the losses were even more calculations analysts. Against this backdrop, shares lost 2.2% in price.
Following the auction on November 3, 2010. Britain's FTSE 100 index fell 8.46 points (-0.15%) - to 5748.97 points, the German DAX fell 36.51 points (-0.55%) - up to 6617.8 points, the French CAC 40 dropped by 22.78 points (-0.59%) and closed at 3,842.94 points, the Swiss SMI "dipped" to 28.51 points (-0.44%), amounting to 6,512.99 points, the Amsterdam AEX fell by 2 , 97 points (-0.87%) - up 339.05 points. Pan-European index of "blue chips" FTSEurofirst 300 during trading fell by 0.43% to 1,088.92 points.
By 9,5% cheaper stocks Cobham Plc., Manufacturer of telecommunications equipment. Investors are not happy about the message that the company expects lower earnings this year because of ongoing transfers of contracts with the U.S. and the general instability in the market.
The situation is similar around the quotations of Norwegian oil company Statoil ASA. They fell 5.4% after the company reported a decline forecast by production volume in 2010.
In the "minus" ended trading day and the second largest in the UK retail chain selling clothing Next Plc. The financial report of the company showed that the losses were even more calculations analysts. Against this backdrop, shares lost 2.2% in price.
Following the auction on November 3, 2010. Britain's FTSE 100 index fell 8.46 points (-0.15%) - to 5748.97 points, the German DAX fell 36.51 points (-0.55%) - up to 6617.8 points, the French CAC 40 dropped by 22.78 points (-0.59%) and closed at 3,842.94 points, the Swiss SMI "dipped" to 28.51 points (-0.44%), amounting to 6,512.99 points, the Amsterdam AEX fell by 2 , 97 points (-0.87%) - up 339.05 points. Pan-European index of "blue chips" FTSEurofirst 300 during trading fell by 0.43% to 1,088.92 points.
U.S. market: investors began to doubt the support program
On Wednesday, 27 October, the U.S. stock market started the day a gap down and then throughout the session continued sliding on inclined. Mixed corporate background, established companies will report back, optimism, investors are not added. The reason sales are fears that the volume of the forthcoming redemption of debt securities of U.S. regulators will be less than expected. Previously, investors have relied on pumping up the market an amount of 0,5-1 trillion dollars, which would force banks to look for ways to invest the funds provided, and hence would lead to an increase in asset prices as the commodity markets and stock. Now in the U.S. media leaked that the Federal Reserve System (FRS) may be limited to the purchase of debt securities for only a few hundred million dollars, which is not very much for such a powerful economy. Trusted in the future growth of assets investors cut long positions now, the Dow Jones and S & P fall.
Apparently, that's why the positive macroeconomic statistics has not had the desired effect on quotes - it became an additional argument in favor of reducing the support program. Recall, U.S. Department of Commerce (US Department of Commerce) has reported growth in orders for durable goods in September 2010. 3,3%, while analysts predicted an increase of 1,6%. Upwardly revised figure, and in August. Housing market data from the Ministry also exceeded expectations: sales of new homes in September totaled 307 thousand units, not 300 thousand, as economists expected.
Following the auction on October 27 the Dow Jones index dropped by 43.18 points (-0.39%) - to 11,126.28 points, S & P - on 3.19 points (-0.27%) - to 1182.45 points. NASDAQ index rose 5.97 points (0.24%) - to 2503.26 points.
Good data from the housing market to help the largest U.S. construction companies have been unable to. Issuers of industry only in early trading in positive territory visited, and then just follow the market trend. Capitalization PulteGroup Inc. decreased by 0,38%, Lennar Corp. - On 1,48%, Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. - On 2,19%, Beazer Homes USA Inc. - On 0,72%. Toll Brothers Inc. by the end of the day was able to return to the opening level.
On Wednesday, the financial report for the III quarter of 2010. presented the American Petroleum Corporation ConocoPhillips. Adjusted profit for the III quarter of 2010. (Excluding proceeds from asset sales and other special items) amounted to 2.2 billion dollars or 1.50 dollars per share. Thus, the profits of Conoco has surpassed market expectations - analysts had forecast that earnings per share were 1.46 dollars ConocoPhillips says quarterly growth year over year by higher prices for hydrocarbons and higher refining margins in the U.S.. However, these positive factors were partially offset by lower production volumes and rising taxes. Grow up paper companies on Oct. 27 failed, but looked no worse than the industry: ConocoPhillips shares lost 1.22% of the price, Exxon Mobil Corp. - 1,29%, Chevron Corp. - 0,99%, Anadarko Petroleum Corp. - 1,39%, Devon Marathon Oil Corp. - 0,87%.
Apparently, that's why the positive macroeconomic statistics has not had the desired effect on quotes - it became an additional argument in favor of reducing the support program. Recall, U.S. Department of Commerce (US Department of Commerce) has reported growth in orders for durable goods in September 2010. 3,3%, while analysts predicted an increase of 1,6%. Upwardly revised figure, and in August. Housing market data from the Ministry also exceeded expectations: sales of new homes in September totaled 307 thousand units, not 300 thousand, as economists expected.
Following the auction on October 27 the Dow Jones index dropped by 43.18 points (-0.39%) - to 11,126.28 points, S & P - on 3.19 points (-0.27%) - to 1182.45 points. NASDAQ index rose 5.97 points (0.24%) - to 2503.26 points.
Good data from the housing market to help the largest U.S. construction companies have been unable to. Issuers of industry only in early trading in positive territory visited, and then just follow the market trend. Capitalization PulteGroup Inc. decreased by 0,38%, Lennar Corp. - On 1,48%, Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. - On 2,19%, Beazer Homes USA Inc. - On 0,72%. Toll Brothers Inc. by the end of the day was able to return to the opening level.
On Wednesday, the financial report for the III quarter of 2010. presented the American Petroleum Corporation ConocoPhillips. Adjusted profit for the III quarter of 2010. (Excluding proceeds from asset sales and other special items) amounted to 2.2 billion dollars or 1.50 dollars per share. Thus, the profits of Conoco has surpassed market expectations - analysts had forecast that earnings per share were 1.46 dollars ConocoPhillips says quarterly growth year over year by higher prices for hydrocarbons and higher refining margins in the U.S.. However, these positive factors were partially offset by lower production volumes and rising taxes. Grow up paper companies on Oct. 27 failed, but looked no worse than the industry: ConocoPhillips shares lost 1.22% of the price, Exxon Mobil Corp. - 1,29%, Chevron Corp. - 0,99%, Anadarko Petroleum Corp. - 1,39%, Devon Marathon Oil Corp. - 0,87%.
Forex: Dollar may continue to rise in price
On Wednesday, 27 October, the dollar began to strengthen. Appeared on the market speculation about the parameters of quantitative easing, with the range of estimates is huge - from 100 billion to 4 trillion U.S. dollars, of course, lies somewhere in between. Most respected investment houses of the world predict 1-1,5 trillion dollars is certainly a huge amount, and it will inevitably lead to inflating bubbles. One of them may be formed in the bond market because it is through the purchase of these tools the Fed intends to pour money into the economy.
"There is much talk about the" bubble "in the bond market and the scare that it may break. I think people are afraid is not quite what follows - the president and chief investment officer of RNC Genter Capital Management, Dan Genter. -" The Bubble " Of course, there is, but I do not think that interest rates suddenly rise and hurl bond prices. This will be a slow, gradual process, and the catastrophe will not happen. And the real problem that few people pay attention - the issue of quality bonds. Investors chasing yield, so buying bonds are less reliable issuers - both corporate and municipal. As a result, today, the spread between, say, A and BBB has shrunk by half in comparison with what was a year ago. In such a situation, I would not fear defaults, and the consequences of reducing the rating. the ten-year bond downgrade from A to BBB can cost investors 15% of the cost. And today's rates do not reflect this risk. "
The process of blowing a bubble in the bond market would be ambiguous. On the one hand, it would lead to a decrease in Treasury yields, because the U.S. Treasury (US Department of the Treasury) - the safest borrower on the planet. However, this can cause an imbalance in the debt market denominated in other currencies. Thus, a dollar in any case, once again wins.
"There is much talk about the" bubble "in the bond market and the scare that it may break. I think people are afraid is not quite what follows - the president and chief investment officer of RNC Genter Capital Management, Dan Genter. -" The Bubble " Of course, there is, but I do not think that interest rates suddenly rise and hurl bond prices. This will be a slow, gradual process, and the catastrophe will not happen. And the real problem that few people pay attention - the issue of quality bonds. Investors chasing yield, so buying bonds are less reliable issuers - both corporate and municipal. As a result, today, the spread between, say, A and BBB has shrunk by half in comparison with what was a year ago. In such a situation, I would not fear defaults, and the consequences of reducing the rating. the ten-year bond downgrade from A to BBB can cost investors 15% of the cost. And today's rates do not reflect this risk. "
The process of blowing a bubble in the bond market would be ambiguous. On the one hand, it would lead to a decrease in Treasury yields, because the U.S. Treasury (US Department of the Treasury) - the safest borrower on the planet. However, this can cause an imbalance in the debt market denominated in other currencies. Thus, a dollar in any case, once again wins.
Oil fell against the dollar strengthening
Oil prices on Wednesday, 27 September, declined, came under pressure to strengthen the dollar. Negative impact on the market was not too happy makrostatistika the United States. Nevertheless, news of a significant decline in gasoline inventories in the United States have contained the drop in prices of oil.
Following the auction on Oct. 27 at the New York Mercantile Exchange futures price for WTI crude oil for December delivery fell 0.61 dollars - up to 81.94 dollars per barrel. At the InterContinental Exchange in London December contract for Brent Crude grade fell by 0.43 dollars, closing at 83.23 dollars per barrel.
Trading session on Wednesday the oil market again took place under the influence of countervailing factors. The tone of trading ask dollar continued to strengthen against the euro, thereby reducing the attractiveness of oil as an alternative investment. In anticipation of the Fed meeting in early November, the main concern of foreign exchange market participants, the second round of monetary incentive, which is expected to be announced participants. In particular, before investors regain rumors that the amount of redemption of public debt by the Federal Reserve would be less than current projections suggest.
Contributed to the strengthening U.S. dollar against the euro and the message that tax revenues in Greece turned out to be less than projected government. The result in question was Greece's intention to reduce its budget deficit. With the problems encountered and Portugal, where the stalled negotiations on the budget for 2011. Against this backdrop, the dollar rose against the euro on 0,9% to $ 1.3734 dollars per euro.
"The economy seems to be no slipping back into recession, however, shows no obvious signs of improvement, - said a senior market strategist at Confluence Investment Management Bill O'Grady. - A key factor is what the Fed will do to support the economy and that it will be mean for the dollar. "
Following the auction on Oct. 27 at the New York Mercantile Exchange futures price for WTI crude oil for December delivery fell 0.61 dollars - up to 81.94 dollars per barrel. At the InterContinental Exchange in London December contract for Brent Crude grade fell by 0.43 dollars, closing at 83.23 dollars per barrel.
Trading session on Wednesday the oil market again took place under the influence of countervailing factors. The tone of trading ask dollar continued to strengthen against the euro, thereby reducing the attractiveness of oil as an alternative investment. In anticipation of the Fed meeting in early November, the main concern of foreign exchange market participants, the second round of monetary incentive, which is expected to be announced participants. In particular, before investors regain rumors that the amount of redemption of public debt by the Federal Reserve would be less than current projections suggest.
Contributed to the strengthening U.S. dollar against the euro and the message that tax revenues in Greece turned out to be less than projected government. The result in question was Greece's intention to reduce its budget deficit. With the problems encountered and Portugal, where the stalled negotiations on the budget for 2011. Against this backdrop, the dollar rose against the euro on 0,9% to $ 1.3734 dollars per euro.
"The economy seems to be no slipping back into recession, however, shows no obvious signs of improvement, - said a senior market strategist at Confluence Investment Management Bill O'Grady. - A key factor is what the Fed will do to support the economy and that it will be mean for the dollar. "
U.S. market: investors cautiously bought
On Monday, 25 October, the U.S. stock indexes rose. Purchases helped the outcome of the summit in South Korea, where the finance ministers of the "big twenty" have decided to refrain from currency and trade wars, which certainly would add the stability of the global economy. In addition, very short time left before November, when the Federal Reserve System (FRS) the USA may disclose details of the program of quantitative easing monetary policy, which should spur demand for assets, since the dollar will depreciate at the same time. Finally, we were pleased with the National Association of Realtors (National Association of Realtors, NAR) USA. According to its figures, sales of homes on the secondary market in the U.S. in September 2010. increased by 10% to 4.53 million units, the experts also hoped to 4.3 million units. As a result, prevent the continued growth of the U.S. market was virtually nothing.
Following the auction on Oct. 25, the Dow Jones rose 31.49 points (0.28%) - to 11,164.05 points, NASDAQ - at 11.46 points (0.46%) - to 2490.85 points, S & P - by 2.54 points (0.21%) - to 1185.62 points.
Most of the largest construction companies in the data from the secondary housing market has reacted positively, as there is reason to believe that the increased activity of buyers will have an impact on the demand for new housing. However, not all market participants are optimistic, because it is believed that problems with mortgage bonds will lead to a cooling housing market because of increased risk. True, the primary market, this should not touch - the new home legally clean and safe, but the pent-up demand from vtornichnogo housing market should be extended to new construction. Growth finished the day Lennar Corp. (+0,54%), DR Horton Inc. (+0,66%), KB Home (+0,47% and Beazer Homes USA Inc. (+2,17%). Fell PulteGroup Inc. (-1,58%), Toll Brothers Inc. (-1, 3%) and Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (-1,36%).
In the banking sector following a statement by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has prevailed decline. Several respected U.S. banks in recent weeks been accused of abuse in foreclosure. Oct. 25 B. Bernanke said that the regulators are very serious consideration to such violations. In particular, he said that regulators carefully examine internal documents of the financial institutions for systematic violations of procedures for foreclosure. Preliminary investigation results will appear in the next month, added B. Bernanke.
Against this backdrop, shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. fell 1,67%, Bank of America Corp. - On 2,45%, The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. - On 0,23%, Wells Fargo & Co. - On 1,49%, PNC Financial Services Group Inc. - On 1,32%, The Bank of New York Mellon Corp. - On 1,35%. Only Citigroup Inc. stood out among this mass, the result - an increase of 2.43%. Support was provided by raising the recommendation on the shares of the bank's analysts Goldman Sachs Group, who believe that Citigroup over the next 12 months is able to grow by another third.
Following the industrial metals prices pulled up the leading metallurgical companies in the U.S.: Alcoa Inc. added 1.26% of the cost, Southern Copper Corp. - 1,92%, Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. - 2,15%, AK Steel Holding Corp. - 0,15%, Arcelor Mittal - 0,78%, Steel Dynamics Inc. - 1,75%. The upward trend in the metals market may persist, despite the risk of an early downward correction of the maximum level of 2010. Increased activity in the housing market (particularly primary) to support quotations.
One of the leaders of the session was a manufacturer of fiber optic cables CommScope Inc., Whose products are used by the largest representatives of the telecommunications industry. On Monday, it was reported that the manufacturer is in talks with the management company Carlyle Group to sell her business for 2.98 billion dollars expected, Carlyle Group will pay U.S. $ 31.5 per share of the acquired company, ie 36.25 % higher than the close of trading last Friday. The growth potential of 25 October was not fully implemented, and the rising cost of CommScope confined 30.45%.
Following the auction on Oct. 25, the Dow Jones rose 31.49 points (0.28%) - to 11,164.05 points, NASDAQ - at 11.46 points (0.46%) - to 2490.85 points, S & P - by 2.54 points (0.21%) - to 1185.62 points.
Most of the largest construction companies in the data from the secondary housing market has reacted positively, as there is reason to believe that the increased activity of buyers will have an impact on the demand for new housing. However, not all market participants are optimistic, because it is believed that problems with mortgage bonds will lead to a cooling housing market because of increased risk. True, the primary market, this should not touch - the new home legally clean and safe, but the pent-up demand from vtornichnogo housing market should be extended to new construction. Growth finished the day Lennar Corp. (+0,54%), DR Horton Inc. (+0,66%), KB Home (+0,47% and Beazer Homes USA Inc. (+2,17%). Fell PulteGroup Inc. (-1,58%), Toll Brothers Inc. (-1, 3%) and Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (-1,36%).
In the banking sector following a statement by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has prevailed decline. Several respected U.S. banks in recent weeks been accused of abuse in foreclosure. Oct. 25 B. Bernanke said that the regulators are very serious consideration to such violations. In particular, he said that regulators carefully examine internal documents of the financial institutions for systematic violations of procedures for foreclosure. Preliminary investigation results will appear in the next month, added B. Bernanke.
Against this backdrop, shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. fell 1,67%, Bank of America Corp. - On 2,45%, The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. - On 0,23%, Wells Fargo & Co. - On 1,49%, PNC Financial Services Group Inc. - On 1,32%, The Bank of New York Mellon Corp. - On 1,35%. Only Citigroup Inc. stood out among this mass, the result - an increase of 2.43%. Support was provided by raising the recommendation on the shares of the bank's analysts Goldman Sachs Group, who believe that Citigroup over the next 12 months is able to grow by another third.
Following the industrial metals prices pulled up the leading metallurgical companies in the U.S.: Alcoa Inc. added 1.26% of the cost, Southern Copper Corp. - 1,92%, Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. - 2,15%, AK Steel Holding Corp. - 0,15%, Arcelor Mittal - 0,78%, Steel Dynamics Inc. - 1,75%. The upward trend in the metals market may persist, despite the risk of an early downward correction of the maximum level of 2010. Increased activity in the housing market (particularly primary) to support quotations.
One of the leaders of the session was a manufacturer of fiber optic cables CommScope Inc., Whose products are used by the largest representatives of the telecommunications industry. On Monday, it was reported that the manufacturer is in talks with the management company Carlyle Group to sell her business for 2.98 billion dollars expected, Carlyle Group will pay U.S. $ 31.5 per share of the acquired company, ie 36.25 % higher than the close of trading last Friday. The growth potential of 25 October was not fully implemented, and the rising cost of CommScope confined 30.45%.
Forex: Dollar is waiting for a pretext for the correction
Any attempt to consolidate the European currency above $ 1.4 dollars / euros not find understanding in the foreign exchange market. Wavelets "bull" activity immediately extinguished, and a pair of quotes are returned in a familiar range of 1,39-1,4 dollars / euros. If the game does not go up, then sooner or later it will go down.
"We have already seen a slight rise in rates UST-10. A couple of euro / dollar is kept at levels 1,39-1,4 dollars / euros. Many traders believe this is a traditional point spread - says CNBC Senior Analyst Optionsxpress Joseph Cusick. - Now may occur significant correction, after which the couple will move into the range 1,2-1,14 dollars / euros. In this case, uncertainty again hit the mood of investors and the market becomes very volatile, despite the positive expectations of the quantitative easing and the forthcoming elections to the Congress. "
Thus, many experts have reasonably believed that the dollar could begin to strengthen. In this case, all the expected quantitative easing is already incorporated in the current quotes - markets just waiting for the signal. Most likely, the Fed surprised the players of his miserliness, and this will be an excellent opportunity to play in the reduction of risky currencies against the dollar.
"We have already seen a slight rise in rates UST-10. A couple of euro / dollar is kept at levels 1,39-1,4 dollars / euros. Many traders believe this is a traditional point spread - says CNBC Senior Analyst Optionsxpress Joseph Cusick. - Now may occur significant correction, after which the couple will move into the range 1,2-1,14 dollars / euros. In this case, uncertainty again hit the mood of investors and the market becomes very volatile, despite the positive expectations of the quantitative easing and the forthcoming elections to the Congress. "
Thus, many experts have reasonably believed that the dollar could begin to strengthen. In this case, all the expected quantitative easing is already incorporated in the current quotes - markets just waiting for the signal. Most likely, the Fed surprised the players of his miserliness, and this will be an excellent opportunity to play in the reduction of risky currencies against the dollar.
Forex: USA won the G20
The consolidation of pair euro / dollar below the 1.4 has ended. The dollar has passed another milestone and found a reason to continue falling. October 25, for one euro yield 1.404 dollars, and apparently this week the weakening U.S. currency will continue.
The reason (and most likely, and the reason) to reduce the world's reserve currency were neutral outcome of the Summit G20: hand, according to the official version, and have not managed to agree. Judging also by the dynamics of the U.S. dollar, has gained the upper hand America. And its currency is now the most conducive to the country's exports. Another great benefit from maintaining the current situation, China will receive.
Thus, a disease that afflicts the European Union during the crisis - the impossibility of taking drastic measures against mnogogolositsy and "equality" of members began to spread to the entire financial world. More so that the acute phase of the crisis had passed: all who needed the money, they somehow got, and hence the reasons for the drastic measures do not. The dollar also continue to fall, stimulating U.S. exports, and no matter what it is accompanied by a bubble in commodity markets - China will buy it.
The reason (and most likely, and the reason) to reduce the world's reserve currency were neutral outcome of the Summit G20: hand, according to the official version, and have not managed to agree. Judging also by the dynamics of the U.S. dollar, has gained the upper hand America. And its currency is now the most conducive to the country's exports. Another great benefit from maintaining the current situation, China will receive.
Thus, a disease that afflicts the European Union during the crisis - the impossibility of taking drastic measures against mnogogolositsy and "equality" of members began to spread to the entire financial world. More so that the acute phase of the crisis had passed: all who needed the money, they somehow got, and hence the reasons for the drastic measures do not. The dollar also continue to fall, stimulating U.S. exports, and no matter what it is accompanied by a bubble in commodity markets - China will buy it.
European markets: Bond finish week mixed dynamics
On Friday, Oct. 22, at the European government bond market dominated mixed feelings. The third consecutive day, market participants are often selective interes3D to debt obligations of the leading European countries. Most of the trading session, players will get rid of short-term government bonds of Germany and France, buying long-term securities. As for the British debt, the purchase of their morning to the middle of the day gave way to sales, and as a result of British Gilts closed the day with a very noticeable drop in the price.
Significant influence on the mood of investors towards the German Bunds has output report IFO Institute in Munich on the studies of business activity in Germany in October this year. The research results have witnessed a sudden surge of optimism in business circles of Germany. The index of business activity (IFO Business Climate) in October rose to mark the September 106.8 points to 107.6 points, while analysts forecast a decline to 106.5 points. Increased compared with the previous month and the index of business valuation to date (IFO Current Assessment), and greater than expected - with 109.8 points to 110.2 points (projected to increase to 110 points). More significant was the growth index of business expectations for the next six months (IFO Expectations) - from the previous level of 103.9 points to 105.1 points against the expected decline to 102.9 points. Such a large surge of optimism in the mood of the German business community was not observed for three and a half years. Obviously, the slowdown in the German economy will not be as significant as experts predict. At least in business circles of Germany, there is no hint of the anxious expectations of economic decline. A recent German economic indicators speak only in favor of the fact that the recovery continues, despite the pessimistic forecasts of slowing global economy.
"Such a strong burst of optimism not seen for three and a half years. This suggests that the slowdown might not be as great as predicted by most analysts," - commented the results of studies IFO chief economist Gernot Nerb.
The fact that a leading European economy continues to successfully recover evidence and released on the eve of an increase in industrial production in October this year. The global financial crisis recedes, and the government should take care of folding strategy stimulates the economy measures, said two days ago, German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
The call for cuts in economic stimulus sounded again from the lips of British economist - a member of the governing board of the Bank of England, Andrew Sentance. "The global economy recovers, and growth in the UK over the past year amounted to 2,5%. We do not need as many incentives," - said E. Sentance, once again defending his position gradually raising interest rates.
Formation of a stable mixed dynamics continued throughout the trading session - German and French bonds with duration of one to six years, closed the day with a slight drop in price, while long-term securities eurozone and British Gilts were at the end of the day were worth considerably less. Yield two-year German Bunds have not changed, but a decade - has increased by 1 bp The spread between them has narrowed from 148 to 147 bp
Significant influence on the mood of investors towards the German Bunds has output report IFO Institute in Munich on the studies of business activity in Germany in October this year. The research results have witnessed a sudden surge of optimism in business circles of Germany. The index of business activity (IFO Business Climate) in October rose to mark the September 106.8 points to 107.6 points, while analysts forecast a decline to 106.5 points. Increased compared with the previous month and the index of business valuation to date (IFO Current Assessment), and greater than expected - with 109.8 points to 110.2 points (projected to increase to 110 points). More significant was the growth index of business expectations for the next six months (IFO Expectations) - from the previous level of 103.9 points to 105.1 points against the expected decline to 102.9 points. Such a large surge of optimism in the mood of the German business community was not observed for three and a half years. Obviously, the slowdown in the German economy will not be as significant as experts predict. At least in business circles of Germany, there is no hint of the anxious expectations of economic decline. A recent German economic indicators speak only in favor of the fact that the recovery continues, despite the pessimistic forecasts of slowing global economy.
"Such a strong burst of optimism not seen for three and a half years. This suggests that the slowdown might not be as great as predicted by most analysts," - commented the results of studies IFO chief economist Gernot Nerb.
The fact that a leading European economy continues to successfully recover evidence and released on the eve of an increase in industrial production in October this year. The global financial crisis recedes, and the government should take care of folding strategy stimulates the economy measures, said two days ago, German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
The call for cuts in economic stimulus sounded again from the lips of British economist - a member of the governing board of the Bank of England, Andrew Sentance. "The global economy recovers, and growth in the UK over the past year amounted to 2,5%. We do not need as many incentives," - said E. Sentance, once again defending his position gradually raising interest rates.
Formation of a stable mixed dynamics continued throughout the trading session - German and French bonds with duration of one to six years, closed the day with a slight drop in price, while long-term securities eurozone and British Gilts were at the end of the day were worth considerably less. Yield two-year German Bunds have not changed, but a decade - has increased by 1 bp The spread between them has narrowed from 148 to 147 bp
The U.S. market is consolidating near the levels achieved
Friday, October 22, a single dynamics at the auctions in the U.S. has not developed. No important macroeconomic statistics has not been published, so investors have focused on reports from the country's largest corporations and start-summit "big twenty" in South Korea. Of finance ministers players waiting agreements concerning monetary disputes, as well as the economic and trade imbalances. But no critical statements that could affect the course of trading on Friday was not done. Stock indexes have behaved fairly predictable: Dow Jones after the previous day immediate objective of growth began to slide down, while NASDAQ and S & P continued to rise.
Following the auction on October 22 the Dow Jones index dropped by 14.01 points (-0.13%) - to 11,132.56 points, NASDAQ rose 19.72 points (0.8%) - to 2479.39 points, S & P rose by 2.82 points (0.24%) - to 1183.08 points.
Reported better than expected U.S. company Amazon.com Inc., Which owns the world's largest online store Amazon.com. Its net profit for the III quarter of 2010. increased by 16% to 231 million dollars compared with a profit of 199 million dollars, resulting in the III quarter of 2009. The company's revenue up to the last quarter reached 7.56 billion dollars, up 38% more than that recorded for the previous year at around U.S. $ 5.449 billion Market Report was accepted positively - Caris & Company experts have even raised their recommendations on the securities of the company to "buy . As a result, shares of Amazon.com rose by 2.52%. Increased cost of paper and online auction eBay Inc. - At 3.22%.
Pleased investors and report one of the world's largest oilfield services company Schlumberger Ltd.: The value of its net profits available for distribution to shareholders, the III quarter of 2010. increased twice - up to 1.73 billion dollars - compared with 787 million dollars received during the same period a year earlier. Was noticeable, and increase revenue - by 26%, to 6.84 billion dollars this way, the company's business expands, there is not only a cost optimization. Both figures surpassed the expectations of industry experts. Against this background, the capitalization of Schlumberger rose by 5.38%. The remaining industry players are also not left behind: National Oilwell Varco Inc. increased by 1,33%, Halliburton Co. - On 1,36%, Baker Hughes Inc. - At 3.26%.
Weaker than the market looked metallurgical companies. Their attractiveness affected and broke the rally in the metals market, and growing fears of investors about the medium-term trend reversal. Thus, quotas can be well below current levels, perhaps even in the lows of 2010. It is fair to note that the factors that could cause such a reversal, not yet, but skeptical bidders continues to grow. In addition, the investment house lowered recommendations for metallurgical companies against the background of their quotes and lackluster prospects. On Friday, for example, such a fate befell Arcelor Mittal - the recommendation of its securities with the "best market" to "neutral" experts reviewed HSBC Securities. As a result, Arcelor Mittal on October 22 fell by 0.52%. The remaining steelmakers for the most part did not look better: Southern Copper Corp. lost 0.88% of the capitalization, Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. - 2,47%, AK Steel Holding Corp. - 1,33%, Steel Dynamics Inc. - 0,21%, Alcoa Inc. - 0,47%.
Fears that the forces of "bulls" are about to run out, so far only confirmed for the index of Dow Jones, the rest continued to rise, but not too sure. Only through the NASDAQ and S & P U.S. market, of course, will not grow, even if it is required equipment. Thus, the market or turns down from current levels, or to the maximum, the selected S & P, and Dow Jones breaks through the same level of resistance, and the bulls get a reason for aggressive purchases. But experts do not see a market of great potential growth. Stock strategist at Standard & Poor "s Alec Young suggests that within the next 12 months, S & P index will reach 1,270 points. This is only 7,4% higher than the close of trading on October 22. So, if A. Young, in his opinion is not alone , the rally comes to an end.
Following the auction on October 22 the Dow Jones index dropped by 14.01 points (-0.13%) - to 11,132.56 points, NASDAQ rose 19.72 points (0.8%) - to 2479.39 points, S & P rose by 2.82 points (0.24%) - to 1183.08 points.
Reported better than expected U.S. company Amazon.com Inc., Which owns the world's largest online store Amazon.com. Its net profit for the III quarter of 2010. increased by 16% to 231 million dollars compared with a profit of 199 million dollars, resulting in the III quarter of 2009. The company's revenue up to the last quarter reached 7.56 billion dollars, up 38% more than that recorded for the previous year at around U.S. $ 5.449 billion Market Report was accepted positively - Caris & Company experts have even raised their recommendations on the securities of the company to "buy . As a result, shares of Amazon.com rose by 2.52%. Increased cost of paper and online auction eBay Inc. - At 3.22%.
Pleased investors and report one of the world's largest oilfield services company Schlumberger Ltd.: The value of its net profits available for distribution to shareholders, the III quarter of 2010. increased twice - up to 1.73 billion dollars - compared with 787 million dollars received during the same period a year earlier. Was noticeable, and increase revenue - by 26%, to 6.84 billion dollars this way, the company's business expands, there is not only a cost optimization. Both figures surpassed the expectations of industry experts. Against this background, the capitalization of Schlumberger rose by 5.38%. The remaining industry players are also not left behind: National Oilwell Varco Inc. increased by 1,33%, Halliburton Co. - On 1,36%, Baker Hughes Inc. - At 3.26%.
Weaker than the market looked metallurgical companies. Their attractiveness affected and broke the rally in the metals market, and growing fears of investors about the medium-term trend reversal. Thus, quotas can be well below current levels, perhaps even in the lows of 2010. It is fair to note that the factors that could cause such a reversal, not yet, but skeptical bidders continues to grow. In addition, the investment house lowered recommendations for metallurgical companies against the background of their quotes and lackluster prospects. On Friday, for example, such a fate befell Arcelor Mittal - the recommendation of its securities with the "best market" to "neutral" experts reviewed HSBC Securities. As a result, Arcelor Mittal on October 22 fell by 0.52%. The remaining steelmakers for the most part did not look better: Southern Copper Corp. lost 0.88% of the capitalization, Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. - 2,47%, AK Steel Holding Corp. - 1,33%, Steel Dynamics Inc. - 0,21%, Alcoa Inc. - 0,47%.
Fears that the forces of "bulls" are about to run out, so far only confirmed for the index of Dow Jones, the rest continued to rise, but not too sure. Only through the NASDAQ and S & P U.S. market, of course, will not grow, even if it is required equipment. Thus, the market or turns down from current levels, or to the maximum, the selected S & P, and Dow Jones breaks through the same level of resistance, and the bulls get a reason for aggressive purchases. But experts do not see a market of great potential growth. Stock strategist at Standard & Poor "s Alec Young suggests that within the next 12 months, S & P index will reach 1,270 points. This is only 7,4% higher than the close of trading on October 22. So, if A. Young, in his opinion is not alone , the rally comes to an end.
Oil prices rose sharply on Wednesday amid falling dollar
Oil prices on Wednesday, October 20, rebounded after a significant fall of the previous day. The dynamics of bidding again determined dollar exchange rate which declined against the euro on 1,7%. Supported the market and data on the smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. oil inventories.
Following the auction on Wednesday at the New York Mercantile Exchange futures price for WTI crude oil for November delivery rose 2.28 dollars to 81.77 dollars per barrel. On the eve of expiration of the November futures for petroleum of this mark. The cost of the December contract on Wednesday rose to $ 2.38 and reached 82.54 dollars per barrel. At the InterContinental Exchange in London December contract for Brent Crude oil price increased by 2.50 dollars and closed at 83.60 dollars per barrel.
The dynamics of the oil market in the last two days is very similar to a rollercoaster. Panic caused by unexpected increases in the People's Bank of China interest rates on loans and deposits, pushed prices out of the side band, where they were from the beginning of October. But the next day another sharp turn everything back to square one: investors reconsidered the ratio to increase rates in China and decided that oil demand in the country remain high.
Strong support to the market at auction on Thursday, helped the dollar, which on the background of changes in estimates of events in China have lost all of the growth of the previous day. Investors again felt zhelanie3D risk, fixed on the commodity markets, is actively selling the public a day earlier positions on the dollar.
Pressure on the U.S. currency has also published on Wednesday further review the U.S. Federal Reserve on the economy - "Beige Book" (Beige Book). According to a survey in September and early October, economic activity in the U.S. continued to grow with restraint and in some regions of growth even accelerated. Nevertheless, it was noted in the document, the growth in some sectors in some regions remains sluggish. Weakness persists on the housing market.
In general, the contents of the "Beige Book" had no impact on the expectations of investors who believe that the next meeting on November 2-3, the Fed will reshenie3D further softening of monetary policy. The dollar fell against the euro on 1,7%, to 1.3964 dollars per euro. During the day the dollar fell against the single currency by 1,9%. Support for the euro against the dollar has had a statement of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, according to which governments should develop a strategy for exit (exit strategy) programs to stimulate the economy, since the global financial crisis recedes.
Following the auction on Wednesday at the New York Mercantile Exchange futures price for WTI crude oil for November delivery rose 2.28 dollars to 81.77 dollars per barrel. On the eve of expiration of the November futures for petroleum of this mark. The cost of the December contract on Wednesday rose to $ 2.38 and reached 82.54 dollars per barrel. At the InterContinental Exchange in London December contract for Brent Crude oil price increased by 2.50 dollars and closed at 83.60 dollars per barrel.
The dynamics of the oil market in the last two days is very similar to a rollercoaster. Panic caused by unexpected increases in the People's Bank of China interest rates on loans and deposits, pushed prices out of the side band, where they were from the beginning of October. But the next day another sharp turn everything back to square one: investors reconsidered the ratio to increase rates in China and decided that oil demand in the country remain high.
Strong support to the market at auction on Thursday, helped the dollar, which on the background of changes in estimates of events in China have lost all of the growth of the previous day. Investors again felt zhelanie3D risk, fixed on the commodity markets, is actively selling the public a day earlier positions on the dollar.
Pressure on the U.S. currency has also published on Wednesday further review the U.S. Federal Reserve on the economy - "Beige Book" (Beige Book). According to a survey in September and early October, economic activity in the U.S. continued to grow with restraint and in some regions of growth even accelerated. Nevertheless, it was noted in the document, the growth in some sectors in some regions remains sluggish. Weakness persists on the housing market.
In general, the contents of the "Beige Book" had no impact on the expectations of investors who believe that the next meeting on November 2-3, the Fed will reshenie3D further softening of monetary policy. The dollar fell against the euro on 1,7%, to 1.3964 dollars per euro. During the day the dollar fell against the single currency by 1,9%. Support for the euro against the dollar has had a statement of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, according to which governments should develop a strategy for exit (exit strategy) programs to stimulate the economy, since the global financial crisis recedes.
U.S. market: Bears seized the initiative
Trading on the U.S. stock market on Tuesday, October 19, held in a negative way. Sales observed since the beginning of the session - set the tone for trading high-tech company Apple Inc. and International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), the financial statements are not pleased investors. In addition, an unexpected surprise for the market was the decision of the Central Bank of China to raise from 20 October a key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points - Up to 5,56%. Thus the regulator is trying to slow down inflation and prevent the adverse effects of rising asset prices. Slower growth in the Chinese economy will affect the reconstruction as the world economy and, in particular, the U.S., for which China - a key trading partner and creditor. It is not surprising that on such external background players prefer to start record profits, and did so aggressively. Did not save stock indices even approaching publication of the report the Fed "Beige Book" and was unexpectedly strong macroeconomic statistics from the housing market.
Following the auction on October 19 the Dow Jones index dropped by 165.07 points (-1.48%) - to 10,978.62 points, NASDAQ fell 43.71 points (-1.76%) - to 2436.95 points, S & P dropped to 18.81 points (-1.59%) - up to 1165.9 points.
First published their financial reports, IBM and Apple - immediately after the close of the pre-session. Apple's net profit up to the 2009-2010 fiscal year that ended Sept. 25, 2010., Grew by 70% to $ 4.013 billion dollars, while revenues increased by 52%. But investors were expecting more from the company because over the last eight quarters she was able to significantly interrupt the projections. Were not too successful and selling tablet iPad: it was sold about 4.2 million copies, while industry experts count on selling at least $ 5 million. But ahead of Christmas and New Year, so that the trend in sales is likely to be restored. In the meantime, the paper Apple fell 2.68%.
IBM report was stronger: III quarter of 2010. its net profit rose 12% compared to the previous year and amounted to 3.6 billion dollars, while revenues rose by 3%. However, investors wary continuing decline in the number of contracts for services - this trend is already stored in the third quarter in a row. As a result, IBM quotes collapsed at 3.36%, and for them slipped and Dell Inc. (-1.17%) With a Hewlett-Packard Co. (-1.13%). Essentially lost in the price and the corporation is Microsoft (-2,79%), reason for selling shares of which was a message of resignation from the company's chief software architect Ray Ozzie. The reasons for the resignation of 54-year old R. Ozzie is not called, but the American media thinks that they might be at odds with the head of the Windows Steven Sinofsky.
Leading U.S. banks have demonstrated multidirectional dynamics. The Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Although it reported a decrease in net profit in the III quarter of 2010. in 1,7 times - to 1.73 billion dollars, went up on Tuesday at 1.96%. The fact that the experts expected even more profits fall - up to 1.33 billion dollars, but the bank managed to beat market forecasts thanks to cost-cutting program.
Following the auction on October 19 the Dow Jones index dropped by 165.07 points (-1.48%) - to 10,978.62 points, NASDAQ fell 43.71 points (-1.76%) - to 2436.95 points, S & P dropped to 18.81 points (-1.59%) - up to 1165.9 points.
First published their financial reports, IBM and Apple - immediately after the close of the pre-session. Apple's net profit up to the 2009-2010 fiscal year that ended Sept. 25, 2010., Grew by 70% to $ 4.013 billion dollars, while revenues increased by 52%. But investors were expecting more from the company because over the last eight quarters she was able to significantly interrupt the projections. Were not too successful and selling tablet iPad: it was sold about 4.2 million copies, while industry experts count on selling at least $ 5 million. But ahead of Christmas and New Year, so that the trend in sales is likely to be restored. In the meantime, the paper Apple fell 2.68%.
IBM report was stronger: III quarter of 2010. its net profit rose 12% compared to the previous year and amounted to 3.6 billion dollars, while revenues rose by 3%. However, investors wary continuing decline in the number of contracts for services - this trend is already stored in the third quarter in a row. As a result, IBM quotes collapsed at 3.36%, and for them slipped and Dell Inc. (-1.17%) With a Hewlett-Packard Co. (-1.13%). Essentially lost in the price and the corporation is Microsoft (-2,79%), reason for selling shares of which was a message of resignation from the company's chief software architect Ray Ozzie. The reasons for the resignation of 54-year old R. Ozzie is not called, but the American media thinks that they might be at odds with the head of the Windows Steven Sinofsky.
Leading U.S. banks have demonstrated multidirectional dynamics. The Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Although it reported a decrease in net profit in the III quarter of 2010. in 1,7 times - to 1.73 billion dollars, went up on Tuesday at 1.96%. The fact that the experts expected even more profits fall - up to 1.33 billion dollars, but the bank managed to beat market forecasts thanks to cost-cutting program.
Oil prices have risen against the backdrop of a strike in France
Oil prices rose Monday amid reports that a strike in the oil refining industry of France led to shortages of fuel in the country. Support to the market also helped optimism on stock markets and the weakening dollar.
Following the auction on Monday, October 19, at the New York Mercantile Exchange futures price for WTI crude oil for November delivery rose 1.83 dollars to 83.08 dollars per barrel. At the InterContinental Exchange in London November contract for Brent Crude oil price increased by 1.92 dollars and closed at 84.37 dollars per barrel.
Continuing the third week of a strike in France has helped the oil market to overcome the tendency to decrease, caused by the strengthening dollar on Friday and the morning session on Monday, October 18. Reaching a low of 80.35 dollars per barrel. (81.53 dollars per barrel. - Brent), the price of mark WTI turned around and headed up.
The strike at the port of Marseille and in the refineries of France led to a noticeable shortage of fuel supply in the country and rising prices for petroleum products in Europe. With the end of September, prices for diesel fuel increased by 8%, gasoline - almost 14%. On the background of the resulting fuel shortage idle idle 15% of petrol stations in France.
Recall that the reason for the strike first in the oil port of Marseilles, and then to refineries France was the intention of President Nicolas Sarkozy to pension reform. At the moment, in the port of Marseilles unloading waiting 28 tankers with crude oil and 24 - with mineral oil. Meanwhile, over the past seven days of striking workers had joined the port for 12 refineries throughout the country, exacerbating the situation. But the government refuses to yield to the demands of strikers.
In morning trading on the Forex is a tendency to an increase in the dollar, which puts pressure on oil prices. However, the U.S. currency could not hold the resulting gains. Against the dollar played a heightened investors' beliefs that the Fed will help weakening economy, while continuing to pump money into it.
The reason for the growth of investor optimism were the words of Ben Bernanke, who on Friday hinted markets that the Fed intends to continue easing monetary policy by launching a second round of monetary incentives. Despite the lack of detail in the Statement, Bernanke, that was enough to cause an increased appetite among investors for risk.
Following the auction on Monday, October 19, at the New York Mercantile Exchange futures price for WTI crude oil for November delivery rose 1.83 dollars to 83.08 dollars per barrel. At the InterContinental Exchange in London November contract for Brent Crude oil price increased by 1.92 dollars and closed at 84.37 dollars per barrel.
Continuing the third week of a strike in France has helped the oil market to overcome the tendency to decrease, caused by the strengthening dollar on Friday and the morning session on Monday, October 18. Reaching a low of 80.35 dollars per barrel. (81.53 dollars per barrel. - Brent), the price of mark WTI turned around and headed up.
The strike at the port of Marseille and in the refineries of France led to a noticeable shortage of fuel supply in the country and rising prices for petroleum products in Europe. With the end of September, prices for diesel fuel increased by 8%, gasoline - almost 14%. On the background of the resulting fuel shortage idle idle 15% of petrol stations in France.
Recall that the reason for the strike first in the oil port of Marseilles, and then to refineries France was the intention of President Nicolas Sarkozy to pension reform. At the moment, in the port of Marseilles unloading waiting 28 tankers with crude oil and 24 - with mineral oil. Meanwhile, over the past seven days of striking workers had joined the port for 12 refineries throughout the country, exacerbating the situation. But the government refuses to yield to the demands of strikers.
In morning trading on the Forex is a tendency to an increase in the dollar, which puts pressure on oil prices. However, the U.S. currency could not hold the resulting gains. Against the dollar played a heightened investors' beliefs that the Fed will help weakening economy, while continuing to pump money into it.
The reason for the growth of investor optimism were the words of Ben Bernanke, who on Friday hinted markets that the Fed intends to continue easing monetary policy by launching a second round of monetary incentives. Despite the lack of detail in the Statement, Bernanke, that was enough to cause an increased appetite among investors for risk.
Forex: Greece once again captures the initiative
On Friday, 15 October, the euro has started to cool overheated, and on Monday, October 18, these trends have developed. The market is looking for a pretext to reduce and re-appeared on the horizon Greece. Finance Minister Giorgos Papaconstantinou in an interview with local media said that in 2013. country does not need new loans. "In the year 2013. Greece is a country with better public finances and a stronger economy. We need no new loans, but will need to keep what we achieve by this time," - said the minister. However, he did not rule out the possibility of increasing the term loan repayments. Minister of Finance noted that the possibility of extending the agreement provides to the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.
"If such a decision will be taken, it would be a sign of confidence and a reward for our efforts," - said Papaconstantinou, adding that talk about this is premature. Recall that in May 2010. Greece reached an agreement with the EU and the IMF to grant her financial assistance to 110 billion euros in the form of a three-year loan at preferential rates - well below market. It is literally pulled out of the debt precipice Greece. In return, Athens undertook a radical program to reduce the budget deficit, which up to 2009. reached exorbitant 13,6% of GDP.
"The euro has repeatedly been criticized, but I think the currency will not go away. As a result of the crisis within the system was actually created a new safety mechanism, which the system lacked from the outset. However, this new mechanism for forcing European countries to adopt economic policies that lead to unemployment and stagnation. And since this comes to economic policy in these countries as if from the outside, this creates a serious political problem - people are tuned sharply against the European Union. The consequences of such situations can be very bad, "said the chairman of Soros Fund Management George Soros.
"If such a decision will be taken, it would be a sign of confidence and a reward for our efforts," - said Papaconstantinou, adding that talk about this is premature. Recall that in May 2010. Greece reached an agreement with the EU and the IMF to grant her financial assistance to 110 billion euros in the form of a three-year loan at preferential rates - well below market. It is literally pulled out of the debt precipice Greece. In return, Athens undertook a radical program to reduce the budget deficit, which up to 2009. reached exorbitant 13,6% of GDP.
"The euro has repeatedly been criticized, but I think the currency will not go away. As a result of the crisis within the system was actually created a new safety mechanism, which the system lacked from the outset. However, this new mechanism for forcing European countries to adopt economic policies that lead to unemployment and stagnation. And since this comes to economic policy in these countries as if from the outside, this creates a serious political problem - people are tuned sharply against the European Union. The consequences of such situations can be very bad, "said the chairman of Soros Fund Management George Soros.
Oil prices rose on optimism about the demand
Oil prices on Wednesday, October 13, grew significantly. Supporting quotations have news about the increase in oil imports in China and improving the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts global demand for "black gold". Positive impact on the dynamics of the market and had a further weakening of the dollar.
Following the auction on Wednesday, October 13, at the New York Mercantile Exchange futures price for WTI crude oil for November delivery rose 1.34 dollars - up to 83.01 dollars per barrel. At the InterContinental Exchange in London November contract for Brent Crude grade went up by 1.14 dollars, closing at 84.64 dollars per barrel.
On the eve of the oil market was dominated by optimism about the future prospects of the global demand for raw materials, supported by two unexpectedly good news. So, according to the General Administration of Customs of China, in September, oil imports into the country reached a record high - 5.67 million barrels. per day, which represents an increase of 35% compared to the same period last year. It follows from these organizations, the reason for increasing steel demand and load factor of China's oil refineries.
"Despite all the fears of an impending economic slowdown, China continues to present surprises - analysts said Barclays Capital. - In fact, the key balance of world oil demand is quickly tilting in China. The role of this country in the oil market is no longer simply totemic. "
Another positive news on the eve was the increase in assessment of world oil demand by the International Energy Agency. According to a review of the organization in 2010 and 2011. oil consumption will grow by 2.15 million and 1.22 million barrels. per day, respectively. This is 0.3 million barrels. per day compared with the previous forecast for the current and for next year.
"News about the global demand for oil continues to give cause for astonishment, - noted in the review at Barclays Capital in connection with this. - It seems that the fact that demand for oil, which occurred in the past few months, has received wide recognition." Indeed, in a positive direction forecast for this week revised as OPEC and the U.S. Department of Energy (US Department of Energy). Analysts estimate the cartel increased oil consumption in the world in 2010. by 80 thousand barrels per day. - Up to 85.59 million barrels., While the Energy Ministry has increased the forecast for the current year to 0.11 million barrels. per day - up to 86.06 million barrels. a day, and for 2011. - By 0.8 million barrels. per day - up to 87.44 million barrels.
Following the auction on Wednesday, October 13, at the New York Mercantile Exchange futures price for WTI crude oil for November delivery rose 1.34 dollars - up to 83.01 dollars per barrel. At the InterContinental Exchange in London November contract for Brent Crude grade went up by 1.14 dollars, closing at 84.64 dollars per barrel.
On the eve of the oil market was dominated by optimism about the future prospects of the global demand for raw materials, supported by two unexpectedly good news. So, according to the General Administration of Customs of China, in September, oil imports into the country reached a record high - 5.67 million barrels. per day, which represents an increase of 35% compared to the same period last year. It follows from these organizations, the reason for increasing steel demand and load factor of China's oil refineries.
"Despite all the fears of an impending economic slowdown, China continues to present surprises - analysts said Barclays Capital. - In fact, the key balance of world oil demand is quickly tilting in China. The role of this country in the oil market is no longer simply totemic. "
Another positive news on the eve was the increase in assessment of world oil demand by the International Energy Agency. According to a review of the organization in 2010 and 2011. oil consumption will grow by 2.15 million and 1.22 million barrels. per day, respectively. This is 0.3 million barrels. per day compared with the previous forecast for the current and for next year.
"News about the global demand for oil continues to give cause for astonishment, - noted in the review at Barclays Capital in connection with this. - It seems that the fact that demand for oil, which occurred in the past few months, has received wide recognition." Indeed, in a positive direction forecast for this week revised as OPEC and the U.S. Department of Energy (US Department of Energy). Analysts estimate the cartel increased oil consumption in the world in 2010. by 80 thousand barrels per day. - Up to 85.59 million barrels., While the Energy Ministry has increased the forecast for the current year to 0.11 million barrels. per day - up to 86.06 million barrels. a day, and for 2011. - By 0.8 million barrels. per day - up to 87.44 million barrels.
Oil prices have fallen
Oil prices on Tuesday, Oct. 12, declined, despite the weakening dollar. Market participants act out projections of oil reserves in the U.S. and the approximation of OPEC meeting. According to the market, at a meeting on Thursday, the ministers of the Organization will maintain production quotas unchanged. In addition, analysts believe that last week in the United States oil reserves rose again.
Following the auction on Oct. 12 at the New York Mercantile Exchange futures price for WTI crude oil for November delivery fell 0.54 dollars - up to 81.67 dollars per barrel. At the InterContinental Exchange in London November contract for Brent Crude grade fell by 0.22 dollars to close at around 83.5 dollars per barrel.
As we approach the next OPEC meeting to be held October 14 in Vienna, the minds of investors are more interested in the likely outcome of this meeting. Expected from the preservation of the cartel quota policy in the newly raised concern about high inventories and sluggish demand for oil is not conducive to improving the mood of investors. "Demand for oil is weak, and stocks are high," - said the energy market analyst at Citi Futures Perspective Tim Evans. OPEC signals that leave production quotas unchanged, a fact pessimistic in the sense that it will help keep the excess in the market, analysts say.
Cartel members have made clear that leave oil production quotas at the same level. In particular, reported by the OPEC Secretary General Abdalla el-Badri, who said that the current price level is comfortable for both producers and consumers. "We do not want to rock the boat and do something that could affect the global economy," - he said. In turn, oil minister of Qatar, Abdullah al-Attiyah said he does not expect changes in OPEC quota, because producers and consumers happy with the current level of oil prices. The market "is very well balanced," added the meantime, Saudi Arabia's oil minister Ali al-Naimi.
Meanwhile, in the next, October, review the oil market OPEC raised its forecast for demand for 2010. by 80 thousand barrels per day. - Up to 85.59 million barrels. For comparison, last year the demand for "black gold" has reached 84.46 million barrels. The outlook revision was caused by higher than expected, amid government incentives pace of economic growth in the first half of this year. "Despite some instability and setbacks, the global economic recovery continued to support oil demand," - noted in the review of OPEC. Consumption forecast for 2011. has not changed: according to the expectations of the cartel, it will grow by 1,2% - to 86.64 million barrels.
Not pleased with the participants of the oil market and projections of reserves of "black gold" last week. According to the expectations of analysts, the amount of oil in storage U.S. increased by 1.4 million barrels. - Up to 362.3 million barrels. Data from the Ministry of Energy (US Department of Energy) will come this week one day later, on Thursday, because of Columbus Day, celebrated in the country on Monday.
Following the auction on Oct. 12 at the New York Mercantile Exchange futures price for WTI crude oil for November delivery fell 0.54 dollars - up to 81.67 dollars per barrel. At the InterContinental Exchange in London November contract for Brent Crude grade fell by 0.22 dollars to close at around 83.5 dollars per barrel.
As we approach the next OPEC meeting to be held October 14 in Vienna, the minds of investors are more interested in the likely outcome of this meeting. Expected from the preservation of the cartel quota policy in the newly raised concern about high inventories and sluggish demand for oil is not conducive to improving the mood of investors. "Demand for oil is weak, and stocks are high," - said the energy market analyst at Citi Futures Perspective Tim Evans. OPEC signals that leave production quotas unchanged, a fact pessimistic in the sense that it will help keep the excess in the market, analysts say.
Cartel members have made clear that leave oil production quotas at the same level. In particular, reported by the OPEC Secretary General Abdalla el-Badri, who said that the current price level is comfortable for both producers and consumers. "We do not want to rock the boat and do something that could affect the global economy," - he said. In turn, oil minister of Qatar, Abdullah al-Attiyah said he does not expect changes in OPEC quota, because producers and consumers happy with the current level of oil prices. The market "is very well balanced," added the meantime, Saudi Arabia's oil minister Ali al-Naimi.
Meanwhile, in the next, October, review the oil market OPEC raised its forecast for demand for 2010. by 80 thousand barrels per day. - Up to 85.59 million barrels. For comparison, last year the demand for "black gold" has reached 84.46 million barrels. The outlook revision was caused by higher than expected, amid government incentives pace of economic growth in the first half of this year. "Despite some instability and setbacks, the global economic recovery continued to support oil demand," - noted in the review of OPEC. Consumption forecast for 2011. has not changed: according to the expectations of the cartel, it will grow by 1,2% - to 86.64 million barrels.
Not pleased with the participants of the oil market and projections of reserves of "black gold" last week. According to the expectations of analysts, the amount of oil in storage U.S. increased by 1.4 million barrels. - Up to 362.3 million barrels. Data from the Ministry of Energy (US Department of Energy) will come this week one day later, on Thursday, because of Columbus Day, celebrated in the country on Monday.
Stock market news
In Europe, the day ended lower. Index of the London Stock Exchange FTSE 100 dropped to 0.19% and closed at 5,661.59 points. The index of the Paris stock exchange CAC 40 fell 0.52% and closed at 3,748.86 points. The index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Xetra DAX dropped to 0.08% and closed at 6,304.57.
Trades in the U.S. began in the "red zone", and 20.30 GMT, the Dow declines by 0.27%, the index S & P - on 0,12%, the index of Nasdaq - is growing at 0.19%. The euro / dollar is at around 1.384. The December futures contract for Brent crude traded at $ 83.37 per dollar on crude oil Light - $ 81,69 to the dollar.
Trades in the U.S. began in the "red zone", and 20.30 GMT, the Dow declines by 0.27%, the index S & P - on 0,12%, the index of Nasdaq - is growing at 0.19%. The euro / dollar is at around 1.384. The December futures contract for Brent crude traded at $ 83.37 per dollar on crude oil Light - $ 81,69 to the dollar.
Forex: euro grew very quickly
Last week, a conversation on the Forex market was that the dollar is falling because of the upcoming U.S. quantitative easing, and hysteria on this issue, largely heated, representatives of the Fed reached a peak early in October, notes the analyst of the investment department VTB24 Aleksei Mikheev. Now, after Friday's comments by James Bullard, all according to the expert, suggests that mitigation is already incorporated in the price of the dollar and won back market, and players tend to buy on the rumor and sell on fact.
Some commentators recalled that just three months ago, the foreign exchange market set at naught the euro, but now in nothing puts a dollar. Mentioned by the experts and the problems that can confront the European economy in the coming months in connection with measures to reduce budget deficits and the reluctance of the ECB to conduct monetary policy easing. "The IMF forecast, published on October 6, suggests that the U.S. economy will grow by 2.6% this year and 2.3% next vs. 1,7% and 1,5% in Europe, respectively. Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker said Oct. 8 that "the euro is too strong today." Probably, some change the mood in the market plus the psychological level of 1.4 were finally able to stop the upward trend in euro / dollar. "
Tuesday, October 12, the euro / dollar continued its decline to the level of 1.387. Most likely in the next few days the pair correction will continue, as the euro has grown very rapidly, and now the speculators are long-time record long positions. Resumption of improving the single currency is likely to begin until late in the week.
Some commentators recalled that just three months ago, the foreign exchange market set at naught the euro, but now in nothing puts a dollar. Mentioned by the experts and the problems that can confront the European economy in the coming months in connection with measures to reduce budget deficits and the reluctance of the ECB to conduct monetary policy easing. "The IMF forecast, published on October 6, suggests that the U.S. economy will grow by 2.6% this year and 2.3% next vs. 1,7% and 1,5% in Europe, respectively. Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker said Oct. 8 that "the euro is too strong today." Probably, some change the mood in the market plus the psychological level of 1.4 were finally able to stop the upward trend in euro / dollar. "
Tuesday, October 12, the euro / dollar continued its decline to the level of 1.387. Most likely in the next few days the pair correction will continue, as the euro has grown very rapidly, and now the speculators are long-time record long positions. Resumption of improving the single currency is likely to begin until late in the week.
Oil Market finished trading on Friday
Oil prices on Friday, October 8, grew up. The reason for the increase of quotations were weak labor market data in the United States that strengthened investors' expectations about what the Fed will begin a second round of monetary incentives. Additional support to the market of raw materials had a dollar.
Following the auction on October 8 at New York Mercantile Exchange futures price for WTI crude oil for November delivery rose 0.99 dollars - up to 82.66 dollars per barrel. At the InterContinental Exchange in London November delivery of Brent price increased by 0.6 dollars, closing at 84.03 dollars per barrel.
Number of jobs in the U.S. non-farm sector (non-farm payrolls) fell in September by 95 thousand units. This was reported on Friday the U.S. Labor Department (US Department of Labor). Thus, the indicator, the output of which is expected with great impatience, again did not meet analysts' forecasts. According to the latest estimates, reduction of the indicator last month was up only 5 thousand. The number of jobs in the private sector, according to experts' forecasts, would grow by 75 thousand units, while the actual magnitude of increase was significantly less - 64 thousand
However, the growth rate of employment in the private sector has been blocked a massive reduction in jobs in the public sector (at 159 thousand), where most of the decline occurred because of layoffs of workers temporarily employed for the census. However, despite the fall in, U.S. unemployment remained at the same level - 9,6%.
Report of the Ministry of Labor has reinforced expectations of analysts and market participants about the fact that the Fed will take further steps to support the U.S. economy. "Overall, the September employment report was weaker than market expectations, supporting the arguments in favor of monetary incentives", - noted in this connection, analysts Societe Generale. Similar opinion is shared by experts Commerzbank. "Friday the report clears the way for the Fed further measures to stimulate the economy", - underlined the bank's economists.
Against this background, continued downward movement of the dollar, which also supported the oil market. On Friday, U.S. dollar exchange rate fell against the yen to a 15-year low a day after losing 0.3% and amounted to 82.15 yen to the dollar. Output data on employment initially caused significant weakening of U.S. currency against the euro (by 0,7%), but later drop the single currency has helped the dollar recover the position. As a result of its exchange rate remained virtually unchanged, amounting to 1.3915 dollars per euro.
Following the auction on October 8 at New York Mercantile Exchange futures price for WTI crude oil for November delivery rose 0.99 dollars - up to 82.66 dollars per barrel. At the InterContinental Exchange in London November delivery of Brent price increased by 0.6 dollars, closing at 84.03 dollars per barrel.
Number of jobs in the U.S. non-farm sector (non-farm payrolls) fell in September by 95 thousand units. This was reported on Friday the U.S. Labor Department (US Department of Labor). Thus, the indicator, the output of which is expected with great impatience, again did not meet analysts' forecasts. According to the latest estimates, reduction of the indicator last month was up only 5 thousand. The number of jobs in the private sector, according to experts' forecasts, would grow by 75 thousand units, while the actual magnitude of increase was significantly less - 64 thousand
However, the growth rate of employment in the private sector has been blocked a massive reduction in jobs in the public sector (at 159 thousand), where most of the decline occurred because of layoffs of workers temporarily employed for the census. However, despite the fall in, U.S. unemployment remained at the same level - 9,6%.
Report of the Ministry of Labor has reinforced expectations of analysts and market participants about the fact that the Fed will take further steps to support the U.S. economy. "Overall, the September employment report was weaker than market expectations, supporting the arguments in favor of monetary incentives", - noted in this connection, analysts Societe Generale. Similar opinion is shared by experts Commerzbank. "Friday the report clears the way for the Fed further measures to stimulate the economy", - underlined the bank's economists.
Against this background, continued downward movement of the dollar, which also supported the oil market. On Friday, U.S. dollar exchange rate fell against the yen to a 15-year low a day after losing 0.3% and amounted to 82.15 yen to the dollar. Output data on employment initially caused significant weakening of U.S. currency against the euro (by 0,7%), but later drop the single currency has helped the dollar recover the position. As a result of its exchange rate remained virtually unchanged, amounting to 1.3915 dollars per euro.
Forex: Japan can not cope with the strengthening of the yen
Friday, October 8, trading floors are closed and U.S. investors to slow down the game: it's time to think. Too aggressive a growth of the euro in recent weeks, and the strengthening of the yen once again began to take over the character.
The main event on Friday was the news that the Japanese government approved a new package of economic incentives in volume 5.05 trillion yen (61 billion U.S. dollars), designed to stop the growth of the country's currency and deflation, according to Associated Press. Incentive plan will be presented at a hearing in Parliament under the supplementary budget in October.
This message is somewhat weakened the yen: at 9:00 GMT on October 8, it was quoted at around 82.35 yen to the dollar. However, this half-measure is unlikely to significantly change the situation. First, the stimulus package could wait long for the approval of Japanese lawmakers, and, second, 61 billion dollars - a small amount in the economy of the country. Recall that only the intervention of 16 September the Bank of Japan spent $ 20 billion, while the yen is currently higher than it was then.
Thus, the allocated funds would last only three interventions, but the success of these actions is not obvious. For example, recent statistical data for Japan showed a decrease in exports and industrial production, as well as the deterioration of corporate sentiment. Tokyo has already spent 915 trillion yen for measures to stimulate the economy. A central bank of Japan on the eve brought a basic discount rate to zero, placing it in the range of 0,0-0,1%. Apparently, the players look to Japan even more aggressive measures, but what exactly should be done is not very clear.
The main event on Friday was the news that the Japanese government approved a new package of economic incentives in volume 5.05 trillion yen (61 billion U.S. dollars), designed to stop the growth of the country's currency and deflation, according to Associated Press. Incentive plan will be presented at a hearing in Parliament under the supplementary budget in October.
This message is somewhat weakened the yen: at 9:00 GMT on October 8, it was quoted at around 82.35 yen to the dollar. However, this half-measure is unlikely to significantly change the situation. First, the stimulus package could wait long for the approval of Japanese lawmakers, and, second, 61 billion dollars - a small amount in the economy of the country. Recall that only the intervention of 16 September the Bank of Japan spent $ 20 billion, while the yen is currently higher than it was then.
Thus, the allocated funds would last only three interventions, but the success of these actions is not obvious. For example, recent statistical data for Japan showed a decrease in exports and industrial production, as well as the deterioration of corporate sentiment. Tokyo has already spent 915 trillion yen for measures to stimulate the economy. A central bank of Japan on the eve brought a basic discount rate to zero, placing it in the range of 0,0-0,1%. Apparently, the players look to Japan even more aggressive measures, but what exactly should be done is not very clear.
U.S. budget deficit in 2010. amounted to 1.3 trillion dollars
U.S. budget deficit in ended September 30, 2010 fiscal year will be slightly less than 1.3 trillion dollars estimated the Congressional Budget Office, reducing the budget deficit amounted to 125 billion dollars compared to the record figure of 2009. Then, government spending exceeded revenue by 1.42 trillion dollars, according to Associated Press.
Congressional Budget Office calculations are preliminary, but it is expected that they will be very close to official indicators of the Treasury Department (US Department of the Treasury). The yield of official data is possible as early as next week.
Congressional Budget Office calculations are preliminary, but it is expected that they will be very close to official indicators of the Treasury Department (US Department of the Treasury). The yield of official data is possible as early as next week.
European exchanges closed lower, led by news from the U.S.
Stock markets in Europe on Friday, October 8, closed primary reduction of core indicators on news from the U.S.. Recall, on Friday made public the data on unemployment in the U.S., according to which the number of new jobs in nonagricultural sectors of the country unexpectedly fell by 95 thousand, while analysts had expected that figure will not change.
Dropped the price of shares of several major banks in the Old World. Paper British Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc. and Barclays fell to 0,44% and 2,3% respectively, the French Credit Agricole SA - on 2,27%, German Deutsche Bank AG - to 0,82%.
In the "minus" completed trades and some of the oil sector. Quotations shares France's Total were down 0,13%, the British-Netherlands Royal Dutch Shell - on 0,30%.
At the same time, several papers have risen in price a number of mining companies against the backdrop of increasing commodity prices. Shares of Anglo-Australian Rio Tinto rose 1.84%.
According to trade in German DAX index rose 15.42 points (0.25%) - to 6291.67 points. The British FTSE 100 fell 4.52 points (-0.08%) - to 5657.61 points, the French CAC 40 - at 7.29 points (-0.19%) - to 3763.18 points, the Swiss SMI - to 35.37 points (-0.56%) - to 6248.80 points, the Dutch AEX - to 1.14 (-0.34%) - up 336.53 points. Index of "blue chips" FTSEurofirst 300 rose 0.1% - to mark 1,070.67 points.
Dropped the price of shares of several major banks in the Old World. Paper British Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc. and Barclays fell to 0,44% and 2,3% respectively, the French Credit Agricole SA - on 2,27%, German Deutsche Bank AG - to 0,82%.
In the "minus" completed trades and some of the oil sector. Quotations shares France's Total were down 0,13%, the British-Netherlands Royal Dutch Shell - on 0,30%.
At the same time, several papers have risen in price a number of mining companies against the backdrop of increasing commodity prices. Shares of Anglo-Australian Rio Tinto rose 1.84%.
According to trade in German DAX index rose 15.42 points (0.25%) - to 6291.67 points. The British FTSE 100 fell 4.52 points (-0.08%) - to 5657.61 points, the French CAC 40 - at 7.29 points (-0.19%) - to 3763.18 points, the Swiss SMI - to 35.37 points (-0.56%) - to 6248.80 points, the Dutch AEX - to 1.14 (-0.34%) - up 336.53 points. Index of "blue chips" FTSEurofirst 300 rose 0.1% - to mark 1,070.67 points.
U.S. market: investors ventured into buying
Friday, October 8, trading on the U.S. stock market started opposite changes of indices, as investors have not decided how exactly to respond to the most awaited event of the week - the September report on unemployment in the country. The fact that, according to U.S. Department of Labor presented (US Department of Labor) data, the unemployment rate in September remained unchanged from August and amounted to 9,6%. Analysts forecast growth rate to 9,7%. However, disappointing was the number of jobs in nonagricultural sectors of the country - it is for the month decreased by 95 thousand, while economists do not expect changes at all. In addition to the negative side was the revised August figure is now believed that in August the number of jobs declined by 57 thousand
Thus, we get a vague picture - the number of jobs shrinking and unemployment is not rising. And after a little hesitation investors have decided to act on previously sketched plans: report was considered negative, the state of the economy - worsening, and it gave the bidders expect the beginning of a new round of inflation of the money market and, consequently, growth in commodity prices and stocks. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard, however, noted that the decision to introduce additional measures stimulating the U.S. economy at the next meeting of the Committee on Open Market (FOMC), which will be held in November 2010, it is unlikely, since slowing the economic recovery yet not so strong. But judging by the dynamics of quotations, his words few people listened, the more so that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has already announced these measures almost.
Following the auction on October 8, the Dow Jones rose to 57.9 points (0.53%) - to 11,006.48 points, NASDAQ - at 18.24 points (0.77%) to 2,401.91 points, S & P - by 7.09 points (0.61%) - to 1165.15 points.
Thus, we get a vague picture - the number of jobs shrinking and unemployment is not rising. And after a little hesitation investors have decided to act on previously sketched plans: report was considered negative, the state of the economy - worsening, and it gave the bidders expect the beginning of a new round of inflation of the money market and, consequently, growth in commodity prices and stocks. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard, however, noted that the decision to introduce additional measures stimulating the U.S. economy at the next meeting of the Committee on Open Market (FOMC), which will be held in November 2010, it is unlikely, since slowing the economic recovery yet not so strong. But judging by the dynamics of quotations, his words few people listened, the more so that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has already announced these measures almost.
Following the auction on October 8, the Dow Jones rose to 57.9 points (0.53%) - to 11,006.48 points, NASDAQ - at 18.24 points (0.77%) to 2,401.91 points, S & P - by 7.09 points (0.61%) - to 1165.15 points.
Forex: investors rush to escape from the printing press
At the international Forex market rally continues euro against the dollar, and such minor events as the lowering of long-term issuer default rating one notch to Ireland - from AA-to A agency Fitch Ratings, market is not interested. Players prefer to quickly sell the dollar because the Fed may have to soon announce another round of quantitative easing. The inclusion of the printing press lead to the continuation "drawdown" of the dollar against the euro and other currencies.
Market divided all the currencies into two groups. First enter the currency of those countries whose governments are inclined to include the printing press, the second - those whose governments are looking for other ways out of crisis. In the first chapter of a dollar, headed by the second - the euro. And this is the most important factors that drive the transition of participants into a single European.
One euro is worth 1.392 dollars, and this is the maximum since the beginning of March 2010. Apparently, a couple of days, the euro could stand in place, mark around 1.4 dollars per euro, and next week the dollar devaluation will continue.
And here is where you really can be interesting in the next session, so it's a couple of the yen-dollar, where the trade is at around 82.85 yen to the dollar. - The level at which the Bank of Japan intervened in mid-September. Will there be another attempt of weakening the yen regulator, is the fundamental question for speculators to the end of the week.
Market divided all the currencies into two groups. First enter the currency of those countries whose governments are inclined to include the printing press, the second - those whose governments are looking for other ways out of crisis. In the first chapter of a dollar, headed by the second - the euro. And this is the most important factors that drive the transition of participants into a single European.
One euro is worth 1.392 dollars, and this is the maximum since the beginning of March 2010. Apparently, a couple of days, the euro could stand in place, mark around 1.4 dollars per euro, and next week the dollar devaluation will continue.
And here is where you really can be interesting in the next session, so it's a couple of the yen-dollar, where the trade is at around 82.85 yen to the dollar. - The level at which the Bank of Japan intervened in mid-September. Will there be another attempt of weakening the yen regulator, is the fundamental question for speculators to the end of the week.
Oil prices again increased significantly
Oil prices at auction on Tuesday, October 5, soared to a maximum in the last five months level. The reason for the growth of quotations of oil futures have news from Japan and the U.S., which gave participants the confidence of world markets that the central banks of these countries will continue to support the economy. Contributed to higher oil prices and weakening dollar.
Following the auction on Tuesday at the New York Mercantile Exchange futures price for WTI crude oil for November delivery rose 1.35 dollars to 82.82 dollars per barrel. At the InterContinental Exchange in London November contract for Brent Crude oil price increased by 1.56 dollars and closed at 84.84 dollars per barrel.
After a brief respite before the oil prices again rushed up. The reason for the resumption of growth was the statement by the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who actually announced a new round of redemption of government debt. According to B. Bernanke, took place before buying assets worth 1.7 trillion dollars has supported the country's economy, a new round will help to further improve the situation. "I can not give exact figures, but I believe that the additional purchase of securities will have a positive impact on the situation in financial markets", - said the head of the Fed.
Analysts and market participants believe that the additional repurchase of securities may be announced in November. "We view the recent statements by the Fed as a signal that the central bank has already decided to continue repurchase of assets, and we expect the FOMC will announce the repurchase program in November" - the analysts said Barclays Capital.
Positively to the dynamics of the oil market also affected the decision of the Bank of Japan lowered key interest rates to nearly zero. In an attempt to revive the economy and prevent a rapid strengthening of the yen, the main bank in the country set at the level of 0-0,1%.
Such activity of Japanese and American central banks has caused the growth of the desire of investors to risk, which favorably affected the dynamics of commodity markets (in particular the oil market), and the stock markets and put pressure on the dollar. The U.S. currency declined against the euro on 1,1%, to 1.3837 dollars / euros. U.S. dollar index, which reflects the movement of the dollar against six major currencies, lost 0.8% to $ 77.81. "It's the dollar, - the president of Schork Group Inc. Stephen Schork. - Anyone who now wants to sell raw materials, should follow the dynamics of the dollar. Between them there is a strong correlation. When a currency is rising, oil prices are falling."
Broad market index Standard & Poor "s 500 Index rose 2.09%, the index of" blue chips "Dow Jones Industrial Average - at 1.80%, high-tech NASDAQ - on 2,36%. In Europe, Germany's DAX rose 1, 33%, Britain's FTSE 100 - by 1.44%, while the French CAC-40 - on 2,25%.
Following the auction on Tuesday at the New York Mercantile Exchange futures price for WTI crude oil for November delivery rose 1.35 dollars to 82.82 dollars per barrel. At the InterContinental Exchange in London November contract for Brent Crude oil price increased by 1.56 dollars and closed at 84.84 dollars per barrel.
After a brief respite before the oil prices again rushed up. The reason for the resumption of growth was the statement by the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who actually announced a new round of redemption of government debt. According to B. Bernanke, took place before buying assets worth 1.7 trillion dollars has supported the country's economy, a new round will help to further improve the situation. "I can not give exact figures, but I believe that the additional purchase of securities will have a positive impact on the situation in financial markets", - said the head of the Fed.
Analysts and market participants believe that the additional repurchase of securities may be announced in November. "We view the recent statements by the Fed as a signal that the central bank has already decided to continue repurchase of assets, and we expect the FOMC will announce the repurchase program in November" - the analysts said Barclays Capital.
Positively to the dynamics of the oil market also affected the decision of the Bank of Japan lowered key interest rates to nearly zero. In an attempt to revive the economy and prevent a rapid strengthening of the yen, the main bank in the country set at the level of 0-0,1%.
Such activity of Japanese and American central banks has caused the growth of the desire of investors to risk, which favorably affected the dynamics of commodity markets (in particular the oil market), and the stock markets and put pressure on the dollar. The U.S. currency declined against the euro on 1,1%, to 1.3837 dollars / euros. U.S. dollar index, which reflects the movement of the dollar against six major currencies, lost 0.8% to $ 77.81. "It's the dollar, - the president of Schork Group Inc. Stephen Schork. - Anyone who now wants to sell raw materials, should follow the dynamics of the dollar. Between them there is a strong correlation. When a currency is rising, oil prices are falling."
Broad market index Standard & Poor "s 500 Index rose 2.09%, the index of" blue chips "Dow Jones Industrial Average - at 1.80%, high-tech NASDAQ - on 2,36%. In Europe, Germany's DAX rose 1, 33%, Britain's FTSE 100 - by 1.44%, while the French CAC-40 - on 2,25%.
Forex: euro continues to rise
Tuesday, October 5, the Forex market has been very hectic. Several large-scale actions regulators have increased volatility. First, the rating agency, Moody "s rating has put Ireland in the fall, announcing that the current rating Aa2 is likely to be downgraded by one notch. The decision will be made in the next three months. Last rating was lowered in July. It happened against the background Bank of Ireland forecast changes in GDP growth in 2010. from 0,8% to 0,2%, in 2011. from 2,8% to 2,4%.
However, as noted by the analysts, the debt market in Europe for this event have not noticed, profitability continues to fall. Yield of 10-year-old Irish bonds stands at 6.28%, Portugal - 6,08%. Euro also continued its steady growth, and on Wednesday at 09:00 Moscow time the European single currency is estimated at U.S. $ 1.384
Second news - Bank of Japan lowered the rate at a meeting with 0,1% to the range of 0,0% -0,1%, the lowest level since 2006. (Before this time the rate for many years was just at 0%). In addition, the Bank of Japan will create a special fund of 60 billion dollars to buy government bonds and other debt instruments on the balance of the central bank. Bank of Japan's actions to mitigate the monetary policy aimed not only at preventing the growth of the yen, but also to support the economy. According to figures published on 30 September, industrial production in Japan has been declining for three months.
However, all these little influence on the news a couple of the yen / dollar did not have, and by that time the pair is trading at around 83.16 yen / dollar. At the same time against the euro, the yen has weakened considerably, but it happened within the established trend - 115.1 yen / euro.
Thus established in the Forex market trends continue to operate - the euro is growing uncontrollably with respect to all other currencies are formed in the debt market, the European Union. Apparently, when they will rake and begin correction of the euro.
However, as noted by the analysts, the debt market in Europe for this event have not noticed, profitability continues to fall. Yield of 10-year-old Irish bonds stands at 6.28%, Portugal - 6,08%. Euro also continued its steady growth, and on Wednesday at 09:00 Moscow time the European single currency is estimated at U.S. $ 1.384
Second news - Bank of Japan lowered the rate at a meeting with 0,1% to the range of 0,0% -0,1%, the lowest level since 2006. (Before this time the rate for many years was just at 0%). In addition, the Bank of Japan will create a special fund of 60 billion dollars to buy government bonds and other debt instruments on the balance of the central bank. Bank of Japan's actions to mitigate the monetary policy aimed not only at preventing the growth of the yen, but also to support the economy. According to figures published on 30 September, industrial production in Japan has been declining for three months.
However, all these little influence on the news a couple of the yen / dollar did not have, and by that time the pair is trading at around 83.16 yen / dollar. At the same time against the euro, the yen has weakened considerably, but it happened within the established trend - 115.1 yen / euro.
Thus established in the Forex market trends continue to operate - the euro is growing uncontrollably with respect to all other currencies are formed in the debt market, the European Union. Apparently, when they will rake and begin correction of the euro.
Major stock indexes in Europe began to drop in week
Trading in stocks in Europe on Monday, October 4, open reduction of the leading index. Negative moods were caused by the threat of players slowing global economic recovery and distribution in Europe of the second wave of recession. Throughout the session, the players get rid of risky assets, which led stock indicators into negative territory. Negative added correction in oil prices and depreciation of most metals. Weak opening of trading on the American markets and disappointing U.S. macroeconomic statistics have enhanced the sales of European stock exchanges by the end of the day. Up to the day the French CAC 40 index fell 1.15% to 3,649.81 points, the German DAX - on 1,24% - to 6134.21 points, the British FTSE 100 index - on 0,66% - to 5555.97 points . Amid fears of slowing global economic growth among the leaders of the negative dynamics of papers were again automakers. Paper BMW lost 2,79%, Peugeot - 3,69%, Renault - 3,53%, Daimler - 3,58%. Reduction of completed trades shares of oil and mining companies.
On Monday, the focus was the pharmaceutical sector. French pharmaceutical company Sanofi-Aventis began a hostile takeover of U.S. rival Genzyme, the world's largest producer of drugs for the treatment of genetic diseases. At the same time Sanofi has left unchanged the price per share Genzyme - at $ 69, so evaluate the company at about 18.5 billion dollars be confirmed also that the equity premium Genzyme (49,86 dollars), calculated on the closing Sale 1 July 2010. when the deal was not yet known, will be 38%, and premium to the average price per month will be almost 31%. The proposal received unanimous support from the board of directors of French companies and will operate until 10 December 2010. Sanofi-Aventis also clarified that on Monday the details of the transaction will be made available to the Commission on the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Shares of Sanofi-Aventis fell 0.58%.
Special Commission of the Government of Switzerland has established the necessary level of capital adequacy for the two largest national banks - UBS and Credit Suisse. According to released on Monday and agreed with the Central Bank and the chief regulator of FINMA decree, equity must constitute 19% of the total assets of credit institutions, whereas under the new banking standards, "Basel III" this figure should be at around 10.5% . Experts have come to believe that the bankruptcy of financial institutions could potentially have a devastating impact on the country's financial system, but decided it was time to replace the solid state guarantees for more stringent capital requirements. However, this provision may still not agree to the cabinet of the country. It was after the vote, the Swiss Government, the bill can conceive virtue. Against this background, stock quotes, UBS declined to 0,48%, Credit Suisse rose to 0.38%.
Industrial prices in the area of treatment of the single European currency (euro) in August 2010. increased compared with the previous month by 0,1%. These data are released on Monday, the European statistical agency Eurostat, reports news service RBC. Analysts had expected a monthly basis, this index increased by 0,2%.
On Monday, the focus was the pharmaceutical sector. French pharmaceutical company Sanofi-Aventis began a hostile takeover of U.S. rival Genzyme, the world's largest producer of drugs for the treatment of genetic diseases. At the same time Sanofi has left unchanged the price per share Genzyme - at $ 69, so evaluate the company at about 18.5 billion dollars be confirmed also that the equity premium Genzyme (49,86 dollars), calculated on the closing Sale 1 July 2010. when the deal was not yet known, will be 38%, and premium to the average price per month will be almost 31%. The proposal received unanimous support from the board of directors of French companies and will operate until 10 December 2010. Sanofi-Aventis also clarified that on Monday the details of the transaction will be made available to the Commission on the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Shares of Sanofi-Aventis fell 0.58%.
Special Commission of the Government of Switzerland has established the necessary level of capital adequacy for the two largest national banks - UBS and Credit Suisse. According to released on Monday and agreed with the Central Bank and the chief regulator of FINMA decree, equity must constitute 19% of the total assets of credit institutions, whereas under the new banking standards, "Basel III" this figure should be at around 10.5% . Experts have come to believe that the bankruptcy of financial institutions could potentially have a devastating impact on the country's financial system, but decided it was time to replace the solid state guarantees for more stringent capital requirements. However, this provision may still not agree to the cabinet of the country. It was after the vote, the Swiss Government, the bill can conceive virtue. Against this background, stock quotes, UBS declined to 0,48%, Credit Suisse rose to 0.38%.
Industrial prices in the area of treatment of the single European currency (euro) in August 2010. increased compared with the previous month by 0,1%. These data are released on Monday, the European statistical agency Eurostat, reports news service RBC. Analysts had expected a monthly basis, this index increased by 0,2%.
Stock trading in Europe
Stock trading in Europe were closed on October 4 reduction of leading indicators: the British FTSE 100 index dropped by 36.93 points (-0.66%) - to 5555.97 points, the German index DAX - on 77.13 points (-1.24% ) - up to 6,134.21 points, the French CAC 40 - at 42.28 points (-1.15%) - to 3649.81 points, the Swiss SMI - to 35.37 points (-0.56%) - up to 6248, 80 items, Dutch AEX - by 3.38 points (-1.01%) - up 330.40 points. Index of "blue chips" FTSEurofirst 300 fell 0.6% - to mark 1,051.05 points.
Stock trading in the U.S. on October 4 closed down: the Dow Jones index dropped by 78.41 points (-0.72%) - to 10,751.27 points, NASDAQ fell 26.23 points (-1.11%) - up to 2344, 52 points, S & P fell by 9.21 points (-0.8%) to 1,137.03 points.
Trading in shares in Asia on Tuesday, are in the red zone. By 8:00 GMT Straits Times fell by 0,3%, Nikkei - on 0,31%, All Ordinaries - on 0,58%, Hang Seng - on 0,39%.
Futures for U.S. indices at 8:00 GMT on October 5 were down: a contract for the S & P 500 - on 0,13%, NASDAQ - on 0,02%.
Stock trading in the U.S. on October 4 closed down: the Dow Jones index dropped by 78.41 points (-0.72%) - to 10,751.27 points, NASDAQ fell 26.23 points (-1.11%) - up to 2344, 52 points, S & P fell by 9.21 points (-0.8%) to 1,137.03 points.
Trading in shares in Asia on Tuesday, are in the red zone. By 8:00 GMT Straits Times fell by 0,3%, Nikkei - on 0,31%, All Ordinaries - on 0,58%, Hang Seng - on 0,39%.
Futures for U.S. indices at 8:00 GMT on October 5 were down: a contract for the S & P 500 - on 0,13%, NASDAQ - on 0,02%.
Forex: Euro suffer from yuan
Growth of the euro has stopped. Achieving complex technical level 1.38 dollars / euro on the eve of forced players to think about the advisability of further purchases. On the one hand, the weak U.S. statistics leaves little choice but to flee from the dollar zone. But finding an alternative to the dollar every day more difficult.
Europe once again plunges into debt crisis, and the stronger euro only worsens the situation. Export-oriented countries in the EU is difficult to compete with goods from China in the first place because European currencies at the moment significantly overstated, and the Chinese opposite - low.
Tuesday, October 5, will meet Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao Meets with representatives of the EU's financial authorities. The talks will be just the adjustment of exchange rates. "The situation with the euro is much worse than the dollar, which leads to global imbalances in the foreign exchange market. We want China to behave as a responsible global player," - said the head of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker. Since Beijing in June refused to pegging the Yuan to the dollar, the Chinese currency has strengthened by 2.15% to the "Americans", but declined by 9.4% against the euro, which caused strong discontent ECB, reports Reuters.
Somehow the players have already started to fix a long euro. The exchange rate established at around 1.368 dollars / euro, and is likely to decline in the next session to continue. Spread (as well as strong reduction) may occur after the announcement of the results of negotiations with the PRC.
Europe once again plunges into debt crisis, and the stronger euro only worsens the situation. Export-oriented countries in the EU is difficult to compete with goods from China in the first place because European currencies at the moment significantly overstated, and the Chinese opposite - low.
Tuesday, October 5, will meet Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao Meets with representatives of the EU's financial authorities. The talks will be just the adjustment of exchange rates. "The situation with the euro is much worse than the dollar, which leads to global imbalances in the foreign exchange market. We want China to behave as a responsible global player," - said the head of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker. Since Beijing in June refused to pegging the Yuan to the dollar, the Chinese currency has strengthened by 2.15% to the "Americans", but declined by 9.4% against the euro, which caused strong discontent ECB, reports Reuters.
Somehow the players have already started to fix a long euro. The exchange rate established at around 1.368 dollars / euro, and is likely to decline in the next session to continue. Spread (as well as strong reduction) may occur after the announcement of the results of negotiations with the PRC.
Brent oil price for the first five months exceeded 83 dollars per barrel.
Oil on the stock exchanges in New York and London trade results on October 1, 2010. again significantly more expensive. Prices of oil futures rose a day on average by 1.85%. The price of Brent crude for the first time in nearly five months established above 83 dollars per barrel. And the price of oil WTI (Light Sweet) for the first time in nearly two months established above 81 dollars per barrel.
Results of the trades on the exchanges for oil contracts, the first position on October 1 were as follows:
- In London on an electronic commodities exchange InterContinental Exchange Futures Europe (ICE Futures Europe) official price of the futures IPE Brent Crude (November) rose $ 1 44 cents (1.7%) and set at around 83.75 dollars per barrel . (The highest for a contract the first position indicator after May 4 this year) with a range of prices for transactions during the session 82,21-83,81 per barrel.;
- New York Mercantile Exchange on an urgent New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) the official price of the futures Light, Sweet Crude Oil (November) rose $ 1 61 cents (2.0%) and set at around U.S. $ 81.58 per barrel. (The highest for a contract the first position indicator after August 5 this year) with a range of prices for transactions during the session 79,70-81,75 per barrel.
The third consecutive increase in the price of oil futures provided on October 1, 2010. macroeconomic statistics from China and the United States convince the market that the process of global economic recovery continues and, therefore, will remain stable demand for energy. In this case, buying oil futures further contributed to a cheap dollar.
In China, up to September 2010. indicator of business activity in the industrial sector has reached a point 53.8 points - a maximum of four months. Above the mark of 50 points this index is stored for 19 consecutive months, indicating stable growth of one of the largest and most actively-growing economies in the world.
At the same time, as reported on October 1 U.S. Department of Commerce (US Department of Commerce), in August 2010. income of U.S. citizens increased by 0.5%, and their costs, which largely relies U.S. economy grew by 0.4%. Analysts had forecast growth of both income and expenditure of 0,3%.
Meanwhile, according to the Ministry of Trade U.S., the cost of construction in August 2010. increased by 0,4%, while analysts predicted its decline by 0,4%. Recall, at the end of July this year construction costs have decreased by 1,4%.
Results of the trades on the exchanges for oil contracts, the first position on October 1 were as follows:
- In London on an electronic commodities exchange InterContinental Exchange Futures Europe (ICE Futures Europe) official price of the futures IPE Brent Crude (November) rose $ 1 44 cents (1.7%) and set at around 83.75 dollars per barrel . (The highest for a contract the first position indicator after May 4 this year) with a range of prices for transactions during the session 82,21-83,81 per barrel.;
- New York Mercantile Exchange on an urgent New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) the official price of the futures Light, Sweet Crude Oil (November) rose $ 1 61 cents (2.0%) and set at around U.S. $ 81.58 per barrel. (The highest for a contract the first position indicator after August 5 this year) with a range of prices for transactions during the session 79,70-81,75 per barrel.
The third consecutive increase in the price of oil futures provided on October 1, 2010. macroeconomic statistics from China and the United States convince the market that the process of global economic recovery continues and, therefore, will remain stable demand for energy. In this case, buying oil futures further contributed to a cheap dollar.
In China, up to September 2010. indicator of business activity in the industrial sector has reached a point 53.8 points - a maximum of four months. Above the mark of 50 points this index is stored for 19 consecutive months, indicating stable growth of one of the largest and most actively-growing economies in the world.
At the same time, as reported on October 1 U.S. Department of Commerce (US Department of Commerce), in August 2010. income of U.S. citizens increased by 0.5%, and their costs, which largely relies U.S. economy grew by 0.4%. Analysts had forecast growth of both income and expenditure of 0,3%.
Meanwhile, according to the Ministry of Trade U.S., the cost of construction in August 2010. increased by 0,4%, while analysts predicted its decline by 0,4%. Recall, at the end of July this year construction costs have decreased by 1,4%.
Premarket: External background positive
Trades in the United States on Friday shut down growth, but on Monday futures for U.S. indices show a moderate decrease. At the auctions in Asia is dominated by buyers. Oil on Friday has risen markedly, but on Monday the market viewed the desire to commit long positions.
Stock trading in Europe on October 1 closed down most of the leading indexes: the British FTSE 100 index climbed 44.28 points (0.80%) - to 5592.90 points, the German DAX index fell by 17.68 points (-0.28 %) - to 6211.34 points. The French CAC 40 dropped to 23.09 points (-0.62%) - to 3692.09 points. The Swiss SMI fell 12.16 points (-0.19%) - to 6284.17 points, the Dutch AEX fell 0.61 points (-0.18%) - up 333.78 points. Index of "blue chips" FTSEurofirst 300 fell 0.4% - to mark 1,056.79 points.
Stock trading in the U.S. on October 1 closed down the growth: the Dow Jones index rose 44.63 points (0.39%) - to 10,829.68 points, NASDAQ at 2.13 points (0.09%) - to 2370.75 points, S & P - on 5.04 points (0.44%) to 1,146.24 points.
Trading in shares in Asia on Monday held a "green" zone. By 8:00 GMT Straits Times rose by 1,07%, Nikkei - on 0,41%, All Ordinaries - on 1,14%, Hang Seng - on 1,36%.
Futures for U.S. indices at 8:00 GMT on October 4 declined: a contract for the S & P 500 - on 0,14%, NASDAQ - on 0,13%.
Stock trading in Europe on October 1 closed down most of the leading indexes: the British FTSE 100 index climbed 44.28 points (0.80%) - to 5592.90 points, the German DAX index fell by 17.68 points (-0.28 %) - to 6211.34 points. The French CAC 40 dropped to 23.09 points (-0.62%) - to 3692.09 points. The Swiss SMI fell 12.16 points (-0.19%) - to 6284.17 points, the Dutch AEX fell 0.61 points (-0.18%) - up 333.78 points. Index of "blue chips" FTSEurofirst 300 fell 0.4% - to mark 1,056.79 points.
Stock trading in the U.S. on October 1 closed down the growth: the Dow Jones index rose 44.63 points (0.39%) - to 10,829.68 points, NASDAQ at 2.13 points (0.09%) - to 2370.75 points, S & P - on 5.04 points (0.44%) to 1,146.24 points.
Trading in shares in Asia on Monday held a "green" zone. By 8:00 GMT Straits Times rose by 1,07%, Nikkei - on 0,41%, All Ordinaries - on 1,14%, Hang Seng - on 1,36%.
Futures for U.S. indices at 8:00 GMT on October 4 declined: a contract for the S & P 500 - on 0,14%, NASDAQ - on 0,13%.
Forex: China buys bonds
Problems in Ireland, Spain, downgrade, and high unemployment in the euro zone - all this does not prevent falls in the growth of the euro upwards. On Monday, October 4, at Forex for one euro can be sold 1.376 U.S. dollar - is unprecedented since March 2010. value. Recall, then of Greece spoke only on the margins of European financial regulators.
Now the euro ralliruet, although problems since March have not diminished. Current quotes "European", can be compared only with the price of gold. In this case, from a fundamental point of view of the cards Pound current rally passes, standing on the sidelines. What does all this show? Only that someone who has a very large financial reserves, without trying to extract economic benefits, demonstrating its power, for example, the United States.
"Ears" someone became apparent over the weekend. China is ready to help Greece out of the economic crisis and will fly the Greek bonds, said on Saturday, October 2, in Athens, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao. But China makes first, and then reported. So, most likely China has already helped the "most trustworthy friend of China to the EU, and still bought a little (by the standards of China's) long-suffering bond Greece. Well, euro rally, after the sort of applications should start coming to an end.
Now the euro ralliruet, although problems since March have not diminished. Current quotes "European", can be compared only with the price of gold. In this case, from a fundamental point of view of the cards Pound current rally passes, standing on the sidelines. What does all this show? Only that someone who has a very large financial reserves, without trying to extract economic benefits, demonstrating its power, for example, the United States.
"Ears" someone became apparent over the weekend. China is ready to help Greece out of the economic crisis and will fly the Greek bonds, said on Saturday, October 2, in Athens, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao. But China makes first, and then reported. So, most likely China has already helped the "most trustworthy friend of China to the EU, and still bought a little (by the standards of China's) long-suffering bond Greece. Well, euro rally, after the sort of applications should start coming to an end.
European markets: bonds complete the week falling prices
Friday, October 1, the European government bond market with the opening of the trading session continued with the formation of a downward price movement. Market participants are the second consecutive day to actively sell bonds all the major European countries. Even before the news that the ECB minimizes non-standard measures to support the economy, has become a catalyst for sales of government bonds eurozone. In particular, the ECB does not intend to resume production of the six-month and twelve-month bonds, maturity dates are due to expire. The news continues to promote the circulation of rumors that the borrowed funds will go up.
Supported the spirit of market "bears" and the message that the international rating agency Fitch Ratings has revised upwards the forecast growth in economic activity in 2010. In the euro zone and Britain on 0,5% - to 1,8% and 1,7% respectively. In addition, released in China is evidence indicating that the growth of industrial production in the country exceeded expectations and turned out in September, the most significant in the last four months have caused a surge of optimism in the market and stimulated the interest in risky assets. As a result, the demand for protective assets finally fell.
Growth of positive sentiment was so great that the wave of sales of government bonds in Europe could not withstand even the weak macroeconomic statistics of leading European countries. In particular, German retail sales fell. Reported by the Federal Statistical Office in Wiesbaden. Instead of the expected growth of 0,4% retail sales in August dropped compared with July by 0.2%. In annual terms, had risen only 2.2%, while analysts had predicted an increase of 3,4%. Meanwhile, monthly statistics of retail sales due to its volatility is not able to give a true picture of consumption in the country. Especially, recent statistics indicate a decline in unemployment in Germany and on consumer spending growth in the II quarter. Clearly, high rates of II quarter and give the experts the Federation of German retailers to increase the previous forecast of growth of retail sales in 2010. from 0% to 1.5%.
Supported the spirit of market "bears" and the message that the international rating agency Fitch Ratings has revised upwards the forecast growth in economic activity in 2010. In the euro zone and Britain on 0,5% - to 1,8% and 1,7% respectively. In addition, released in China is evidence indicating that the growth of industrial production in the country exceeded expectations and turned out in September, the most significant in the last four months have caused a surge of optimism in the market and stimulated the interest in risky assets. As a result, the demand for protective assets finally fell.
Growth of positive sentiment was so great that the wave of sales of government bonds in Europe could not withstand even the weak macroeconomic statistics of leading European countries. In particular, German retail sales fell. Reported by the Federal Statistical Office in Wiesbaden. Instead of the expected growth of 0,4% retail sales in August dropped compared with July by 0.2%. In annual terms, had risen only 2.2%, while analysts had predicted an increase of 3,4%. Meanwhile, monthly statistics of retail sales due to its volatility is not able to give a true picture of consumption in the country. Especially, recent statistics indicate a decline in unemployment in Germany and on consumer spending growth in the II quarter. Clearly, high rates of II quarter and give the experts the Federation of German retailers to increase the previous forecast of growth of retail sales in 2010. from 0% to 1.5%.
Europe's stock exchanges were closed in different directions.
Trading in stocks in Europe were opened on Friday, October 1, 2010. growth of leading indexes. Increase quotations promote positive data on industrial production in China. However, the negative impact on the market have had worse than expected given the index of business activity in industry in several European countries, as well as rising unemployment, the eurozone and the fall in retail sales in Germany. During the day, a single trend in the movement of quotations is not mentioned, but by the end of the session sales have increased, despite the publication of a favorable macroeconomic statistics in the U.S. and positive start to trading on U.S. exchanges. Following the session, the indicators showed mixed changes. The French CAC 40 index fell 0.62% to 3,692.09 points, the German DAX - on 0,28% and amounted to 6,211.34 points. Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.8% - to 5592.9 points.
The leaders were increasing share of European mining company by increasing prices for gold and industrial metals. So, gold prices have updated their historic peak due to the fall of the dollar against the euro and other world currencies. Paper largest sector of BHP Billiton rose 1,63%, Anglo American - to 1.76%, Australian-British Rio Tinto - on 0,87%, the Swiss Xstrata Plc .- to 1,93%.
Favorably completed session for papers of the oil sector. In addition to good macro-economic statistics of China and a weakening dollar increased the price of oil futures also contributed to instability in Ecuador, and fears of possible disruption of supplies of oil from that country, which is a member of OPEC. As a result, Brent oil price at auction on Friday for the first five months exceeded the mark of $ 83 per barrel. Paper French Total rose by 0.71%, shares of British and Netherlands Royal Dutch Shell - on 1,46%.
The leaders were increasing share of European mining company by increasing prices for gold and industrial metals. So, gold prices have updated their historic peak due to the fall of the dollar against the euro and other world currencies. Paper largest sector of BHP Billiton rose 1,63%, Anglo American - to 1.76%, Australian-British Rio Tinto - on 0,87%, the Swiss Xstrata Plc .- to 1,93%.
Favorably completed session for papers of the oil sector. In addition to good macro-economic statistics of China and a weakening dollar increased the price of oil futures also contributed to instability in Ecuador, and fears of possible disruption of supplies of oil from that country, which is a member of OPEC. As a result, Brent oil price at auction on Friday for the first five months exceeded the mark of $ 83 per barrel. Paper French Total rose by 0.71%, shares of British and Netherlands Royal Dutch Shell - on 1,46%.
Forex: China may be interested in the euro
Euro continues to grow strongly, despite the availability of debt problems in the area of circulation of the currency. Analysts can not find the reasons why the euro is going up so steadily against the dollar. In this case, the pound sterling is in place. Moreover, from a fundamental point of view in the U.S. economy is not so bad, and all is not well in the European economy, euro rally to take the form of a stampede from the dollar.
"The main source of dollar weakness now - it's China. Since the PRC authorities have moved to a more flexible yuan, the euro / dollar began to rise. The schedule for the five years shows a strong inverse correlation between pairs of dollar / yuan and the euro / dollar, that is this is not a short-term phenomenon. Euro is now used for dumping the dollar as the ECB, in contrast to the Bank of Japan fails to take action against the strengthening of its currency - says a senior strategist Chris Zwermann Financial Tsvermann. - The next important technical levels on euro / dollar rate is 1.456 dollars per euro, then - 1,48 USD / EUR. The growth of these markers to take about three months, but the first step has already been made, since the pair was fixed above the 1.35 dollars per euro. "
The expert would like to reduce everything to technical factors: the growth of value of the yuan is pushing the euro up. However, it is possible that not only deal in yuan. And the translation of their reserves in the area, "euro". Then the unrestrained growth of a "European" is more than justified, and the current price of 1.366 dollars per euro will seem very low in a month.
"The main source of dollar weakness now - it's China. Since the PRC authorities have moved to a more flexible yuan, the euro / dollar began to rise. The schedule for the five years shows a strong inverse correlation between pairs of dollar / yuan and the euro / dollar, that is this is not a short-term phenomenon. Euro is now used for dumping the dollar as the ECB, in contrast to the Bank of Japan fails to take action against the strengthening of its currency - says a senior strategist Chris Zwermann Financial Tsvermann. - The next important technical levels on euro / dollar rate is 1.456 dollars per euro, then - 1,48 USD / EUR. The growth of these markers to take about three months, but the first step has already been made, since the pair was fixed above the 1.35 dollars per euro. "
The expert would like to reduce everything to technical factors: the growth of value of the yuan is pushing the euro up. However, it is possible that not only deal in yuan. And the translation of their reserves in the area, "euro". Then the unrestrained growth of a "European" is more than justified, and the current price of 1.366 dollars per euro will seem very low in a month.
Forex: the euro will continue until
The international currency market Forex euro continues to rise against the dollar. But already seen an obvious overheating. How long the rally will not last, and on Friday, October 1, we can expect the beginning of correction. Thus, players have two more sessions for which the euro could reach the key level of 1.38 dollars per euro. True, further to improve the game is unlikely.
On Wednesday, September 29 at 8:30 GMT the euro is trading at around 1.36 dollars / euro, and it is also difficult level, but the players are optimistic in the morning, and is likely to increase during the day continues.
But raising the British pound is less aggressive. On the eve of the data were released, according to which the UK GDP in the II quarter of 2010. By the final results, in comparison with the previous quarter grew by 1.2%. This figure coincided with analysts' expectations, and in general suggests that the economy is emerging from crisis. At the same time, market participants will remember how much re-printed pounds this cost growth, and, of course, fear of inflation.
Thus the current "shakeup" in the Forex market is primarily associated with the flight of inflation, rather than seeking a safe haven. The economy is confidently stands up, and players will start (and reasonably) afraid of depreciations.
On Wednesday, September 29 at 8:30 GMT the euro is trading at around 1.36 dollars / euro, and it is also difficult level, but the players are optimistic in the morning, and is likely to increase during the day continues.
But raising the British pound is less aggressive. On the eve of the data were released, according to which the UK GDP in the II quarter of 2010. By the final results, in comparison with the previous quarter grew by 1.2%. This figure coincided with analysts' expectations, and in general suggests that the economy is emerging from crisis. At the same time, market participants will remember how much re-printed pounds this cost growth, and, of course, fear of inflation.
Thus the current "shakeup" in the Forex market is primarily associated with the flight of inflation, rather than seeking a safe haven. The economy is confidently stands up, and players will start (and reasonably) afraid of depreciations.
Oil prices on world markets have changed in different directions
Oil prices on world markets on Tuesday, September 28, changed differently. During the day on the market dynamics affect opposing factors. On the one hand, up quotations of oil futures pushed the weakening dollar, on the other - the pressure on prices exerted concern about supply and demand dynamics of gasoline inventories in the U.S..
Following the auction on Tuesday, September 28 at the New York Mercantile Exchange futures price for WTI crude oil for November delivery fell 0.34 dollars to 76.18 dollars per barrel. At the InterContinental Exchange in London November contract for Brent Crude oil price increased by 0.14 dollars and closed at 78.71 dollars per barrel.
Tuesday on the oil market was marked by increased volatility. Positive impact on the dynamics of trades provided events on the currency market, where the dollar continued to fall against the European currency. (A weaker dollar increases the attractiveness of oil as an alternative investment). As a result, prices for WTI crude oil during the day reaches 77.12 dollars per barrel.
Backdrop for the dollar's decline was the index of consumer confidence in the U.S., whose value in September fell to 48.5 points against 53.2 points a month earlier (analysts expected a decline to 52.1 points). This decrease is activated expectations that U.S. Federal Reserve will begin the next round of monetary incentives. Consequently, the U.S. dollar exchange rate broke through key resistance level against the euro fell to its lowest level in five months. The decline was 0.9%, resulting in the dollar to a level of 1.3579 dollars per euro. During the day, the dollar sank to a mark of 1.3595 dollars per euro.
But to stay on reached an intraday high oil prices failed. Against the market once again played a concern of investors in the further demand for gasoline in the U.S.. Spoil the mood of market participants to these companies MasterCard Inc., According to which, last week, gasoline consumption in the country fell for the fifth time in six weeks. As reported by the company, the week before 24 September gasoline demand in the U.S. fell by 0.2% to 8.98 million barrels per day
Expressed concerns, market participants and for gasoline stocks. On Wednesday, come next data U.S. Department of Energy (US Department of Energy, DOE) on oil and petroleum products. It is expected that last week the amount of gasoline in the U.S. stores has increased by 350 thousand barrels. Meanwhile, the data of the American Petroleum Institute (API), released on the eve after the close of exchange trading, pointed to the increase in gasoline stocks by 3 million barrels. More positive figures API introduced in respect of oil (-2.4 million barrels). And distillates (- 2.8 million barrels).
Following the auction on Tuesday, September 28 at the New York Mercantile Exchange futures price for WTI crude oil for November delivery fell 0.34 dollars to 76.18 dollars per barrel. At the InterContinental Exchange in London November contract for Brent Crude oil price increased by 0.14 dollars and closed at 78.71 dollars per barrel.
Tuesday on the oil market was marked by increased volatility. Positive impact on the dynamics of trades provided events on the currency market, where the dollar continued to fall against the European currency. (A weaker dollar increases the attractiveness of oil as an alternative investment). As a result, prices for WTI crude oil during the day reaches 77.12 dollars per barrel.
Backdrop for the dollar's decline was the index of consumer confidence in the U.S., whose value in September fell to 48.5 points against 53.2 points a month earlier (analysts expected a decline to 52.1 points). This decrease is activated expectations that U.S. Federal Reserve will begin the next round of monetary incentives. Consequently, the U.S. dollar exchange rate broke through key resistance level against the euro fell to its lowest level in five months. The decline was 0.9%, resulting in the dollar to a level of 1.3579 dollars per euro. During the day, the dollar sank to a mark of 1.3595 dollars per euro.
But to stay on reached an intraday high oil prices failed. Against the market once again played a concern of investors in the further demand for gasoline in the U.S.. Spoil the mood of market participants to these companies MasterCard Inc., According to which, last week, gasoline consumption in the country fell for the fifth time in six weeks. As reported by the company, the week before 24 September gasoline demand in the U.S. fell by 0.2% to 8.98 million barrels per day
Expressed concerns, market participants and for gasoline stocks. On Wednesday, come next data U.S. Department of Energy (US Department of Energy, DOE) on oil and petroleum products. It is expected that last week the amount of gasoline in the U.S. stores has increased by 350 thousand barrels. Meanwhile, the data of the American Petroleum Institute (API), released on the eve after the close of exchange trading, pointed to the increase in gasoline stocks by 3 million barrels. More positive figures API introduced in respect of oil (-2.4 million barrels). And distillates (- 2.8 million barrels).
European stocks showed no significant changes
Trading in stocks in Europe on Tuesday, 28 September, the leading index opened lower, following the collapse of American stock indicators before and negative dynamics in Asian trading on Tuesday. Soon fall to a halt, and then quotes the majority of papers have started to grow strongly. During the day, the markets remained highly volatile, but on the session key stock indicators were again on the closing level on Monday. Following the session, the French CAC 40 index fell by 0.1% - to 3762.35 points, the German DAX dropped by 0,05% - to 6276.09 points, Britain's FTSE 100 rose 0.09% - to 5578.44 points.
During the day, influenced the trading exerted oppositely directed factors. Rating agency Standard & Poor's warned that could continue to reduce the credit ratings of Ireland, if government spending on the restructuring of troubled bank Anglo Irish Bank will approach previously called around 35 billion euros.
Paper Michelin, French tire maker, have fallen to 10,2% on the announcement the company plans to raise 1.2 billion euros by issuing new shares to finance business expansion in developing countries. Shares of Akzo Nobel, Netherlands chemical company, fell 2.17%, Akzo Management plans to increase its dividend this year, only 5 cents, while investors hoped for more generous benefits. Paper British bank Royal Bank of Scotland fell 1.56% after reports that he plans to cut additional 500 jobs.
Shares of Unilever rose to 1.05%. UK / Netherlands company before agreed to buy U.S. manufacturer of personal hygiene Alberto Culver for 3.7 billion euros, paying U.S. $ 77.5 per share. Executive Director of the European company Paul Poulman expressed confidence that the products manufactured by American competitors, which successfully complement the range of Unilever.
Issuing statistics did not cause investors have little optimism. UK GDP in the II quarter of 2010. By the final results, in comparison with the previous quarter grew by 1.2%. On this news service reported RBC with reference to the National Bureau of Statistics of the country. Analysts also predicted that this figure will increase by 1.2%. In annual terms, the GDP of Great Britain in II quarter of 2010. increased by 1,7%. In the I quarter of 2010. UK GDP, according to revised data, relative to the IV quarter of 2009. increased by 0,4% (previously reported growth of 0,3%), and with respect to I quarter of 2009. showed a decline of 0.3% (previously reported a decline of 0.2%).
The consumer price index in Germany in September 2010. According to preliminary data, increased by 1,3% in annual terms. Such data has published the Federal Statistics Service of Germany. Analysts also expect the value of this indicator at the level of 1,3%. Compared with August 2010. inflation fell to 0.1 percentage points. In August of this year Consumer prices in Germany, according to updated data, rose 1% on an annualized basis, and on a monthly basis figure has not changed.
During the day, influenced the trading exerted oppositely directed factors. Rating agency Standard & Poor's warned that could continue to reduce the credit ratings of Ireland, if government spending on the restructuring of troubled bank Anglo Irish Bank will approach previously called around 35 billion euros.
Paper Michelin, French tire maker, have fallen to 10,2% on the announcement the company plans to raise 1.2 billion euros by issuing new shares to finance business expansion in developing countries. Shares of Akzo Nobel, Netherlands chemical company, fell 2.17%, Akzo Management plans to increase its dividend this year, only 5 cents, while investors hoped for more generous benefits. Paper British bank Royal Bank of Scotland fell 1.56% after reports that he plans to cut additional 500 jobs.
Shares of Unilever rose to 1.05%. UK / Netherlands company before agreed to buy U.S. manufacturer of personal hygiene Alberto Culver for 3.7 billion euros, paying U.S. $ 77.5 per share. Executive Director of the European company Paul Poulman expressed confidence that the products manufactured by American competitors, which successfully complement the range of Unilever.
Issuing statistics did not cause investors have little optimism. UK GDP in the II quarter of 2010. By the final results, in comparison with the previous quarter grew by 1.2%. On this news service reported RBC with reference to the National Bureau of Statistics of the country. Analysts also predicted that this figure will increase by 1.2%. In annual terms, the GDP of Great Britain in II quarter of 2010. increased by 1,7%. In the I quarter of 2010. UK GDP, according to revised data, relative to the IV quarter of 2009. increased by 0,4% (previously reported growth of 0,3%), and with respect to I quarter of 2009. showed a decline of 0.3% (previously reported a decline of 0.2%).
The consumer price index in Germany in September 2010. According to preliminary data, increased by 1,3% in annual terms. Such data has published the Federal Statistics Service of Germany. Analysts also expect the value of this indicator at the level of 1,3%. Compared with August 2010. inflation fell to 0.1 percentage points. In August of this year Consumer prices in Germany, according to updated data, rose 1% on an annualized basis, and on a monthly basis figure has not changed.
Prices of oil futures changed insignificantly
Prices of oil futures on the stock exchanges in New York and London with the beginning of this week have changed insignificantly. Results of the trades on the exchanges for oil contracts, the first entry on Sept. 27 were as follows:
- New York Mercantile Exchange on an urgent New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) the official price of the futures Light, Sweet Crude Oil (November) symbolically rose by 3 cents and set at around 76.52 dollars per barrel. with a range of prices for transactions during the session 75,52-77,17 per barrel.;
- In London on an electronic commodities exchange InterContinental Exchange Futures Europe (ICE Futures Europe) official price of the futures IPE Brent Crude (November) fell by 30 cents (-0.4%) and set at around 78.57 dollars per barrel. with a range of prices for transactions during the session 77,60-79,20 per barrel.
Opposite changes in prices for active contracts were due to unnatural preservation of the positive price difference between oil benchmarks Brent and WTI, which is technically ensured a weak increase in the official price of the futures Light Sweet. Meanwhile, the overall market condition characterized by low activity and a weakening demand for oil futures by a lack of strong fundamentals and the decline in the leading stock indexes in the U.S. and Europe.
Pressure on the oil market on September 27 also helped out weekly increase in U.S. inventories of crude oil and energy derivatives. On the eve of industry experts predicted that as of September 24, commercial crude oil inventories in the U.S. could rise for the week by 2,0-2,2 million barrels., Gasoline stocks at the same time could grow to 800-900 thousand barrels per day., and heavy distillate stocks - by 40-500 thousand barrels.
At the same time, some support for the oil market has had on the eve of a cheap dollar, kept the oil prices from a substantial reduction. Thus, an indicator of the market Forex, reflecting changes in U.S. dollar concerning "basket" of six leading world currencies, Dollar Index (spot) on September 27 has slightly decreased, and sank to its lowest level since early February 2010. - 79.338 points.
Recall last week's oil on the stock exchanges rose in price three times - 20, 23 and 24 September. In general, for the past week the official price of WTI crude oil rose by 2.83 dollars per barrel., Or 3,8%, and the barrel of Brent crude rose by 66 cents, or 0.8%. Including the results of bidding on September 24 WTI oil price has reached its maximum value for the first nine trading days - to $ 76.49 per barrel. And the price of crude oil Brent - the maximum for the four trading days - to $ 78.87 per barrel.
- New York Mercantile Exchange on an urgent New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) the official price of the futures Light, Sweet Crude Oil (November) symbolically rose by 3 cents and set at around 76.52 dollars per barrel. with a range of prices for transactions during the session 75,52-77,17 per barrel.;
- In London on an electronic commodities exchange InterContinental Exchange Futures Europe (ICE Futures Europe) official price of the futures IPE Brent Crude (November) fell by 30 cents (-0.4%) and set at around 78.57 dollars per barrel. with a range of prices for transactions during the session 77,60-79,20 per barrel.
Opposite changes in prices for active contracts were due to unnatural preservation of the positive price difference between oil benchmarks Brent and WTI, which is technically ensured a weak increase in the official price of the futures Light Sweet. Meanwhile, the overall market condition characterized by low activity and a weakening demand for oil futures by a lack of strong fundamentals and the decline in the leading stock indexes in the U.S. and Europe.
Pressure on the oil market on September 27 also helped out weekly increase in U.S. inventories of crude oil and energy derivatives. On the eve of industry experts predicted that as of September 24, commercial crude oil inventories in the U.S. could rise for the week by 2,0-2,2 million barrels., Gasoline stocks at the same time could grow to 800-900 thousand barrels per day., and heavy distillate stocks - by 40-500 thousand barrels.
At the same time, some support for the oil market has had on the eve of a cheap dollar, kept the oil prices from a substantial reduction. Thus, an indicator of the market Forex, reflecting changes in U.S. dollar concerning "basket" of six leading world currencies, Dollar Index (spot) on September 27 has slightly decreased, and sank to its lowest level since early February 2010. - 79.338 points.
Recall last week's oil on the stock exchanges rose in price three times - 20, 23 and 24 September. In general, for the past week the official price of WTI crude oil rose by 2.83 dollars per barrel., Or 3,8%, and the barrel of Brent crude rose by 66 cents, or 0.8%. Including the results of bidding on September 24 WTI oil price has reached its maximum value for the first nine trading days - to $ 76.49 per barrel. And the price of crude oil Brent - the maximum for the four trading days - to $ 78.87 per barrel.
Forex: Ireland stopped the growth of the euro
Euro rallies up starts coming to an end. The reason for stopping the aggressive buying currencies on Monday, 27 September, was the emergence of new problems in Ireland. This week the country will announce the final price of redemption Anglo Irish Bank and try to allay fears of investors about the fact that the country will have to ask for help from the EU. Though currently the state estimates the size of the cost of bailouts of $ 22 billion, the rating agency Standard & Poor's believes that the payments could reach 35 billion euros, equivalent to 20% of annual GDP.
Typically, when such news, the euro lost several pieces, but not this time. The fact that this week September 28-30, European banks have to refinance much of its debt to the ECB, which collectively reach 530 billion euros, and against this background that the Europeans are buying up its currency.
Thus until the end of the week the euro will remain near current levels (1.345 dollars / euros at 9:00 GMT), but on Friday, October 1, perhaps starting a new flight to the dollar or the yen. In the first currency to expect a mass influx is not necessary. Since the Fed systematically weakens the "American", carrying out periodic verbal intervention of quantitative easing. However, the yen in the current situation does not look the best choice, since the intervention of the Japanese Central Bank has already moved from the category of literature in the actual discharge. That's the start on Friday.
Typically, when such news, the euro lost several pieces, but not this time. The fact that this week September 28-30, European banks have to refinance much of its debt to the ECB, which collectively reach 530 billion euros, and against this background that the Europeans are buying up its currency.
Thus until the end of the week the euro will remain near current levels (1.345 dollars / euros at 9:00 GMT), but on Friday, October 1, perhaps starting a new flight to the dollar or the yen. In the first currency to expect a mass influx is not necessary. Since the Fed systematically weakens the "American", carrying out periodic verbal intervention of quantitative easing. However, the yen in the current situation does not look the best choice, since the intervention of the Japanese Central Bank has already moved from the category of literature in the actual discharge. That's the start on Friday.
U.S. Market: rally continues
On Friday, 24 September, the U.S. stock market right from the opening of confidence went up. The reason for the optimism were seemingly weak macroeconomic data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce (US Department of Commerce). According to them, orders for durable goods in August 2010. decreased compared with the previous month by 1,3%, while analysts predicted a drop of only 1%. However, if you look at the value of the index with the exception of orders for vehicles (as calculated by the Ministry), it increased by as much as 2% with respect to the July figure. So down the value of the index utyanuli just collapsed sale of aircraft and vehicles.
Interrupted the rally reported that sales of new homes in the U.S. in August 2010. not changed compared with the figures for July and amounted to 288 thousand units. Experts reasonable to expect that after a number of positive sector news that came this week, and this figure will not fail and will reach 295 thousand units. But even fell short of expectations did not cause a reversal of intraday market trends. Results day is impressive: the Dow Jones and NASDAQ have upgraded four-month highs go, and S & P caught up with them at the end of the session.
Following the auction on September 24 the Dow Jones index rose 197.84 points (1.86%) - to 10,860.26 points, NASDAQ - at 54.14 points (2.33%) to 2,381.22 points, S & P - by 23.83 points (2.12%) to 1,148.66 points.
On the background of strong data on orders for durable goods increased demand was the shares of industrial conglomerates and the representatives of heavy industry. Not that investors are instantly changed the prospects of the economy, rather after a protracted consolidation simply used the occasion to open a short-term long positions on a temporary ideological securities. Shares of United Technologies Corp. rose 2,44%, Loews Corp. - On 2,03%, 3M Co. - On 1,67%, General Electric Co. - On 3,22%, Caterpillar Inc. - On 4,55%, Deere & Co. - On 2,04%, and Cummins Inc. - On 2,89%.
Leading developers of the country on Friday were able to avoid falling. Firstly, a day earlier formed a local oversold, when a drop in prices of the industry amounted to 6%, and secondly, a good report for the III quarter of 2009, 2010. financial year published a KB Home. Despite the fact that the quarter once again proved to be unprofitable, the loss amounted to only 2 cents per share, versus forecasts of market participants to 15 cents. Furthermore, sales jumped 9% - to 0,5 billion dollars, and it became the most outstanding result of the developer over the past four years. Against this background, quotes KB Home rose by 3,42%, Lennar Corp. - On 3,68%, PulteGroup Inc. - On 2,93%, Toll Brothers Inc. - On 3,23%, DR Horton Inc. - On 2,82%, Beazer Homes USA Inc. - At 5.03%. Outsider preceding session - Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. again lagged behind the sector (1.32%).
Interrupted the rally reported that sales of new homes in the U.S. in August 2010. not changed compared with the figures for July and amounted to 288 thousand units. Experts reasonable to expect that after a number of positive sector news that came this week, and this figure will not fail and will reach 295 thousand units. But even fell short of expectations did not cause a reversal of intraday market trends. Results day is impressive: the Dow Jones and NASDAQ have upgraded four-month highs go, and S & P caught up with them at the end of the session.
Following the auction on September 24 the Dow Jones index rose 197.84 points (1.86%) - to 10,860.26 points, NASDAQ - at 54.14 points (2.33%) to 2,381.22 points, S & P - by 23.83 points (2.12%) to 1,148.66 points.
On the background of strong data on orders for durable goods increased demand was the shares of industrial conglomerates and the representatives of heavy industry. Not that investors are instantly changed the prospects of the economy, rather after a protracted consolidation simply used the occasion to open a short-term long positions on a temporary ideological securities. Shares of United Technologies Corp. rose 2,44%, Loews Corp. - On 2,03%, 3M Co. - On 1,67%, General Electric Co. - On 3,22%, Caterpillar Inc. - On 4,55%, Deere & Co. - On 2,04%, and Cummins Inc. - On 2,89%.
Leading developers of the country on Friday were able to avoid falling. Firstly, a day earlier formed a local oversold, when a drop in prices of the industry amounted to 6%, and secondly, a good report for the III quarter of 2009, 2010. financial year published a KB Home. Despite the fact that the quarter once again proved to be unprofitable, the loss amounted to only 2 cents per share, versus forecasts of market participants to 15 cents. Furthermore, sales jumped 9% - to 0,5 billion dollars, and it became the most outstanding result of the developer over the past four years. Against this background, quotes KB Home rose by 3,42%, Lennar Corp. - On 3,68%, PulteGroup Inc. - On 2,93%, Toll Brothers Inc. - On 3,23%, DR Horton Inc. - On 2,82%, Beazer Homes USA Inc. - At 5.03%. Outsider preceding session - Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. again lagged behind the sector (1.32%).
Forex: Dollar continues to take positions
Most players in the Forex can not cope with the strengthening of the euro, although this may well explain the weakness of the dollar, analysts said Deutsche Bank. The situation in the U.S. for them to clear and unambiguous. The Fed is trying to cope with the weakness of the economy, but unemployment remains high and the outcome of congressional elections in November is uncertain. According to recent polls, more than half the inhabitants of the country agree with the decisions of the government. Thus, most readily accept the weakening dollar. Much more difficult to understand the growth of the euro. Ireland, Greece and Portugal were again in the spotlight. But the steadfast position of the single currency. "We still see potential for growth in the euro against the dollar to a mark of 1.3565 dollars per euro", - underline analysts Deutsche Bank.
September 27, the ratio of the euro / dollar is near the mark 1.346 dollars per euro, which is not too far from the goals, defined objectives Deutsche Bank. At the same time, euro rally on this is unlikely to cease, and, most likely, the first signs of eye fixation, "European" will begin in the medium term, higher, perhaps around mark 1.38 dollars / euro.
But probably the main growth of the euro has played, and in recent days looks better the British pound. Apparently, in the next session of the players will pay attention on the currency. One pound is worth 1.582 U.S. dollars, short-term forecast of 1.6 dollars per pound.
September 27, the ratio of the euro / dollar is near the mark 1.346 dollars per euro, which is not too far from the goals, defined objectives Deutsche Bank. At the same time, euro rally on this is unlikely to cease, and, most likely, the first signs of eye fixation, "European" will begin in the medium term, higher, perhaps around mark 1.38 dollars / euro.
But probably the main growth of the euro has played, and in recent days looks better the British pound. Apparently, in the next session of the players will pay attention on the currency. One pound is worth 1.582 U.S. dollars, short-term forecast of 1.6 dollars per pound.
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