Fears that global economic growth slowing, Monday, August 16, continued to exert pressure on the oil quotations. The reason for their decline was the next portion of makrostatistiki the U.S. and Japan, offset by positive impact of weakening dollar.
As a result of trading on Aug. 16 at the New York Mercantile Exchange price of a futures contract for WTI crude oil for September delivery fell 0.15 dollars - up to 75.24 dollars per barrel. During the day the cost of the class drop to 74.86 dollars per barrel. At the InterContinental Exchange in London, the September contract for Brent Crude oil prices have fallen by 0.26 dollars, closing at 74.85 dollars per barrel.
On Monday, the main struggle for influence in the oil quotations unfolded between the dollar (weakening which usually increases the attractiveness of the "black gold" as an alternative investment) and stock exchanges on the one hand, and concerns about slowing economic growth (the consequence could be to reduce demand for raw materials) - other.
Despite the support of weakening the dollar (the exchange rate on August 16 fell against all major currencies with the euro decline was 0.5% - up to 1.2815 dollars / euros) and an intraday rise in stock exchange, the final outcome of trading on Aug. 16 determined makrostatistika .
At the beginning of the session a great disappointment to investors become Japan's GDP, suffered a fall in domestic demand and increase imports. Thus, the economy is in II quarter has grown almost (an increase of 0.1% in quarterly terms and by 0.4% per year), which was a surprise to analysts, the projected increase in GDP at 0.6% (by 2,3% in the annual comparison).
Oil poured into the fire index Empire State Manufacturing, reflecting the situation in the manufacturing sector of New York. In August the index rose by 7.01 points versus 5.08 points increase on the previous month, which nevertheless fell far short of the expectations of analysts had forecast growth of the indicator by 8 points.
"At first glance, a small rebound Empire State Manufacturing index indicates that the manufacturing sector has stabilized at relatively low levels - analyst Capital Economics. - Unfortunately, the more important components of the index show a different picture. Thus, the index of new orders fell to 14-month low - from plus 2.7 to minus 10.1 points, and the index of traffic fell to its lowest level in 16 months, down from plus 6.3 to minus 11.5 points. The index of employment, meanwhile jumped from 7.9 up 14.3 points, but it is unlikely the company manufacturing sector and will continue to hire more workers by a decline in the number of new orders. The only bright spot of the report was a component of capital costs (reflecting the perspectives in this area over the next six months), which recovered to 14.3 points in July to 22.9 points in August. It seems that despite the apparent fall in demand, companies are still willing to invest. In general, the published data were frankly disgusting and have intensified fears about what we can expect a hard landing. "
Finally, once again spoiled the mood of investors, data on U.S. housing sector. The index of business activity in this area, calculated by the National Association of Home Builders U.S. (NAHB), in August fell to 13 points against 14 points a month earlier and prognosis in 15 points. This is the third decline in a row, bringing the figure was the lowest since March 2009. Thus, the entire growth, the index showed during the last year against a background of economic recovery and the introduction of tax incentives, was offset by.
Meanwhile, as the negative macroeconomic indicators continue to fuel investors' fears of a possible decrease in demand for oil, analysts continue to raise forecasts of consumption of raw materials. Last week, ratings for the current and following years, the IEA increased (by 80 thousand and 50 thousand barrels. Per day, respectively) and OPEC (140 thousand barrels. Per day for both years).
The growth in demand for oil have a regular review and analysts Goldman Sachs. According to them, in the last two months of global demand in this market exceeded supply. The bank explained by the fact that oil reserves are stored in tankers, fell to 18-month low. "Now, when stocks in the floating storage dropped to its lowest level in 18 months, we expect that in the coming months will begin to fall and land reserves - experts said. - In view of the fact that global stocks tend to be seasonal growth in the second half We believe that the rate of decline of world oil reserves will grow. "
